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Monday, November 25, 2013

Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

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Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Sr. Mortgage Consultant
3767 Karicio Lane, Ste B
Prescott, AZ 86303
Office: 928.445.8730
Fax: 928.445.1065
Cell: 928.533.7473

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of November 25, 2013 – Vol. 11, Issue 47

 

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "After all is said and done, more is said than done." --Aesop, Greek story teller

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
... Plenty was being said last week about Existing Homes Sales, down 3.2% for October. The talk among some analysts was that the drop indicates a slowdown in the housing recovery. But October sales appear to have been somewhat affected by the government shutdown (remember that?), with closings delayed because the IRS couldn't verify income. Even with that, October posted the fifth highest level for any month since late 2009, when the home buyer tax credit was about to go away. In fact, October sales came in at a 5.12 million annual rate, up 6% from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) feels a lack of inventory is holding down sales, However,
the median existing home price is up 12.8% over a year ago, which should bring more sellers into the market. Rising prices also make buyers more willing to commit than when they feared values could keep dropping. Plus, the National Association of Home Builders confidence index held at 54 in November, near its highest levels in eight years, which should boost the new home supply. For the week ending November 15, mortgage applications for purchase loans jumped 6%.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
..."Touch it once" is a time-tested time management strategy. Act on an item the moment you touch it, instead of going back to it again and again before actually completing it.

>> Review of Last Week

SWEET 16... In spite of all the talk about stock market bubbles, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 16,000 for the first time ever. This Sweet 16 party was joined by the S&P 500 celebrating its record close above 1800, as it nailed its seventh straight weekly gain. Many investors maintain these increases are not a price bubble. They point to real value tied to better than expected Q3 corporate earnings, improvements in the major economies of the U.S., China, and Europe, and the understanding that although the Fed may taper its bond buying, it won't raise interest rates any time soon.

Wall Street's optimistic view of our economic future was supported by Retail Sales, UP 0.4% in October, as the consumer clearly wasn't spooked by the federal government's partial shutdown. Business Inventories, UP at a faster-than-predicted 0.6% rate, showed companies seemed as confident as their customers. Yes, Existing Home Sales dipped in October and the Philly Fed showed manufacturing in that region grew less than forecast. But CPI inflation stayed under control and weekly Unemployment Claims saw their largest drop in nearly three months!

The week ended with the Dow up 0.6%, to 16065; the S&P 500 up 0.4%, to 1805; and the Nasdaq up 0.1%, to 3992.

Bonds were pressured after minutes from the October 30 meeting hinted the Fed could begin tapering its bond buying soon. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .10, to $101.06. National average fixed mortgage rates fell in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending November 21. This was attributed to low overall inflation rates and weaker manufacturing growth. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up to the minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?
... The NAR reported the median time on market for all homes sold in October was 54 days -- and 36% were on the market less than a month! The median time for all homes sold in October 2012 was 71 days.

>> This Week's Forecast

HOME BUILDING AND PENDING SALES UP, CONSUMERS KEEP SMILING... There's a lot to learn in just three days. We get a two-month view of home building, as October's Housing Starts and Building Permits come in with September's, unreported during the government shutdown. Economists expect gains for these, as well as for October Pending Home Sales. Consumer Confidence and Michigan Consumer Sentiment are forecast up in November.

The stock and bond markets are closed on Thanksgiving and close early on Black Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 25 – Nov 29

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

M
Nov 25

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Oct

1.3%

–5.6%

Moderate

Tu
Nov 26

08:30

Housing Starts

Sep

915K

891K

Moderate

Tu
Nov 26

08:30

Housing Starts

Oct

920K

NA

Moderate

Tu
Nov 26

08:30

Building Permits

Sep

932K

918K

Moderate

Tu
Nov 26

08:30

Building Permits

Oct

932K

NA

Moderate

Tu
Nov 26

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Nov

72.4

71.2

Moderate


Nov 27

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

11/23

330K

323K

Moderate


Nov 27

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

11/16

2.875M

2.876M

Moderate


Nov 27

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Oct

–2.2%

3.8%

Moderate


Nov 27

09:45

Chicago PMI

Nov

58.0

65.9

HIGH


Nov 27

09:55

Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment–Final

Nov

73.0

72.0

Moderate


Nov 27

10:00

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index

Oct

–0.1%

0.7%

Moderate


Nov 27

10:30

Crude Inventories

11/23

NA

0.375M

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The debate continues about when the Fed will start to taper its bond buying program, but economists agree that the Funds Rate will stay down where it is well into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Dec 18

0%–0.25%

Jan 29

0%–0.25%

Mar 19

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Dec 18

     <1%

Jan 29

     <1%

Mar 19

     <1%

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



Equal Housing Lender

MCID900139960

 

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