Market Trends Weekly - August 27, 2013

 

Markets Looking for a Sign Last Week in Review: Housing news was front and center, and the news shows that the housing sector continues to recover--for the most part, as some of the gains in existing home sales were offset by losses in new home sales. The minutes from the Fed's July meeting were released, and unfortunately did not offer any clues as to how long The Fed's bond purchasing program will continue. We will continue to monitor for news on this topic, as the results are being watched closely, and will likely significantly impact the markets.     August 27, 2013     The last week of August brings some key reports, with news on inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Confidence, and more. Existing Home Sales rose by 6.5 percent in July from June and are up 17.2 percent since this time last year. In addition, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices rose 7.7 percent in the year ended in June. From May to June, prices rose by 0.7 percent. However, New Home Sales dropped 13.4 percent in July from June, below expectations, and June's numbers were also revised lower. Also of note last week, the minutes from the Fed's July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee were released--and they offered no clarity as to when the Fed will begin tapering its Bond purchases. Remember that the Fed has been buying $85 billion of Bonds a month to help stimulate the economy and housing market. This includes Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied, and these purchases have helped home loan rates remain attractive. The Fed has said the rate of its purchases will continue to depend on economic data, and could be increased or decreased accordingly. Jobs data is one area the Fed will be watching especially closely. And last week, there was a jump in weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which rose by 13,000 to 336,000. Though this was in line with estimates and the figure remains near post-recession lows, it is the highest level in a month. However, the 4-week average, which evens out seasonal abnormalities, fell to 330,500, near 6-year lows. What does this mean for home loan rates? Economic data in the coming weeks will be a key factor in whether the Fed begins tapering its Bond purchases as early as its meeting in mid-September, or if it waits until later in the year or even 2014. This timing could pay a big role in the direction Bonds and home loan rates move in the months ahead. The bottom line is that home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels and now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients. Erica Mckitrick Erica.Mckitrick@carringtonms.com           Your Carrington Loan Officer   Erica Mckitrick NMLS #: 249520 Erica.Mckitrick@carringtonms.com  Scottsdale, AZ (Retail 2) AZ   Carrington Retail Turn Times   Closing your loan quickly is important to Carrington with our 25 Day Loan Closing Pledge. Current Loan Turn Times       Economic Calendar for the Week of August 26 - August 30   Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Prior Impact Mon. August 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Jul NA 3.9% Moderate Tue. August 27 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jun NA 12.2% Moderate Tue. August 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug NA 80.3 Moderate Wed. August 28 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jul NA -0.4% Moderate Thu. August 29 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q2 NA 0.7% Moderate Thu. August 29 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2 NA 1.7% Moderate Thu. August 29 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 8/24 NA NA Moderate Fri. August 30 08:30 Personal Income Jul NA 0.3% Moderate Fri. August 30 08:30 Personal Spending Jul NA 0.5% Moderate Fri. August 30 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Jul NA 0.2% HIGH Fri. August 30 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 1.2% HIGH Fri. August 30 08:30 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Aug NA 80.0 Moderate Fri. August 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Aug NA 52.3 HIGH                     © Copyright 2007-2013 Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC headquartered at 1610 E. Saint Andrew Place, Suite B-150, Santa Ana, CA 92705. Toll Free (800) 561-4567. NMLS ID #2600. Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS) Consumer Access Web Site: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org. AZ: Mortgage Banker BK-0910745; 2159 McCulloch Blvd #4, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86403. CA: Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, File No. 413 0904. CO: To check the license status of your mortgage loan originator, visit http://www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm. 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