>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Most people never run far enough on their first wind to find out they've got a second." --William James, American philosopher and psychologist
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The housing market sure seems to be getting a second wind. The latest forecast from the National Association of Realtors predicts a 9.5% gain in existing home sales in 2012 and a 6.9% boost in 2013, to almost 5 million units. New home sales are projected to jump 29% this year and 62% (!!) in 2013, to 629,000 units. Median prices for existing homes should be UP 3% in 2012 and UP 5.7% in 2013. New home median prices are expected UP 4% this year and UP 4.6% in 2013.
Want some corroboration for this good news? No less an authority than the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University asserts in "The State of the Nation's Housing 2012" that "...there is reason to believe that 2012 will mark the beginning of a true housing market recovery." The report cautions: "Sustained employment growth remains key,..." adding: "If the broader economy weakens in the short term, the housing rebound could again stall."
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Do what you tell people you're going to do. This includes what you tell yourself you'll accomplish. You'll be seen as reliable and productive, two great business traits.
>> Review of Last Week
NO FIREWORKS... There was nothing much to celebrate on Wall Street as the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy created just 80,000 jobs in June, about one third of them temporary. Hiring slowed sharply in the second quarter, job gains averaging only 75,000 per month. In response to this tepid data, investors sold off stocks, sending the Dow and the S&P 500 down for the week. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq managed its fifth straight weekly gain, albeit by a minuscule 0.1%.
Adding to the disappointment, ISM Manufacturing came in below 50, signaling contraction in the factory sector for the first time since mid-2009. But the ISM Non-manufacturing index, while dropping in June, stayed just above 50, indicating slight expansion. Unfortunately, June Same Store Sales came in below expectations, with 14 retailers missing estimates, the most since May 2011. Finally, China and the European Central Bank cut interest rates and the Bank of England stepped up its asset purchase program to stimulate growth.
For the week, the Dow ended down 0.8%, at 12772; the S&P 500 closed down 0.5%, to 1355; and the Nasdaq was up 0.1%, to 2937.
With the world worried about another economic slowdown, investors flocked to the safe haven of bonds. The weak U.S. Employment Report gave prices a final boost. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch finished the week UP 0.20, at $105.25. National average mortgage rates on 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages plunged to record lows in Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Purchase loan demand edged up slightly for the week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
DID YOU KNOW?... Quantitative easing is the process of increasing the money supply to ease a credit crunch and, hopefully, boost the economy. It is usually employed only after interest rates are already at zero..
>> This Week’s Forecast
TRADE DEFICIT, FED DEFICIT, FED MINUTES... After the big focus on last Friday's jobs numbers, we have a relatively quiet week ahead. Tuesday's Trade Balance should show the deficit in May still hovering near the $50 billion level. Thursday's Federal Deficit for June is also worth watching, having been up past $43 billion.
Wednesday it may be instructive to check out the FOMC Minutes from the Fed's meeting on June 20. We could get a clearer idea of if and when the central bank will start printing more money ("Quantitative Easing") in an effort to stimulate the economy.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Jul 9 – Jul 13
Date
|
Time (ET)
|
Release
|
For
|
Consensus
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
W
Jul 11
|
08:30
|
Trade Balance
|
May
|
–$48.9B
|
–$50.1B
|
Moderate
|
W
Jul 11
|
10:30
|
Crude Inventories
|
07/07
|
NA
|
–4.270M
|
Moderate
|
W
Jul 11
|
14:00
|
FOMC Minutes
|
06/20
|
NA
|
NA
|
HIGH
|
Th
Jul 12
|
08:30
|
Initial Unemployment Claims
|
07/07
|
375K
|
374K
|
Moderate
|
Th
Jul 12
|
08:30
|
Continuing Unemployment Claims
|
06/30
|
3.300M
|
3.306M
|
Moderate
|
Th
Jul 12
|
14:00
|
Federal Deficit
|
Jun
|
NA
|
–$43.1B
|
Moderate
|
F
Jul 13
|
08:30
|
Producer Price Index (PPI)
|
Jun
|
–0.6%
|
–1.0%
|
Moderate
|
F
Jul 13
|
08:30
|
Core PPI
|
Jun
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
Moderate
|
F
Jul 13
|
09:55
|
Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
|
Jul
|
73.5
|
73.2
|
Moderate
|
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... In the current economic environment, economists expect the Fed to keep the Funds Rate exceptionally low at least through late 2014. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on:
|
Consensus
|
Aug 1
|
0%–0.25%
|
Sep 13
|
0%–0.25%
|
Oct 24
|
0%–0.25%
|
Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on:
|
Consensus
|
Aug 1
|
<1%
|
Sep 13
|
<1%
|
Oct 24
|
<1%
|
|
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