News for Prescott AZ - AmericanTowns.com

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Inside Lending News From Theron Wall

 

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

visit my website     email me now

Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Sr. Mortgage Consultant
3767 Karicio Lane, Ste B
Prescott, AZ 86303
Office: 928.445.8730
Fax: 928.445.1065
Cell: 928.533.7473

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of March 12, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 11

 

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Opportunities? They're all around us...there is power lying latent everywhere waiting for the observant eye to discover it." --Orison Swett Marden

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
... It shouldn't take a particularly observant eye to see the historic affordability available to home buyers, thanks to current home prices and mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Housing Affordability Index reached a 42-year high in January. An index of 100 represents a median-income family's ability to afford a median-priced, existing single-family home, with a 20% down payment and mortgage payments at 25% of gross income. January's record reading was 206.1! 

Freddie Mac's chief economist commented, "the typical family had more than double the income needed to purchase a median-priced home in January." There's also talk about prices finally bottoming out. Data aggregator CoreLogic's National Home Price Index in January was at its lowest level since January 2003, and their chief economist noted prices are "not far from the bottom."  Finally, the NAR forecasts existing home sales UP 6.8% for the year.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
...  Pay attention to the little stresses in your work. They're usually easy to fix, but if you ignore them, you can wind up with a whole bunch that add up to one big stress.

>> Review of Last Week

DOW, OW! OTHER TWO, UP... Investors responded to the now usual combination of better and worse than expected economic news by sending the Dow down, but keeping the other two market indexes up for the week. Monday's ISM Non-Manufacturing showed slightly stronger than expected growth among service businesses. But our economy is now globally connected, so it wasn't good that China dropped its 2012 growth forecast to 7.5%, the lowest in eight years, and Eurozone Q4 GDP shrunk 0.3%. Meanwhile, our trade deficit ballooned in January to $52.6 billion.

There were enough negative vibes to dampen investor optimism over the February Employment Report's gain of 227,000 nonfarm jobs. The unemployment rate remains 8.3%, with almost 13 million out of work. There are 8.1 million "involuntary part-time workers" who want a full-time job but can't find one. And over half the increase in professional and business services jobs were in temporary help services. So the housing market still isn't seeing the jobs recovery it needs.

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.4%, at 12922; the S&P 500 closed UP 0.1%, to 1371; and the Nasdaq went UP 0.4%, to 2988. 


Better than expected economic data, plus a Greek debt agreement, sent bond prices lower. But details of the Greek deal kept worries alive, sending investors back to the safety of bonds. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .06, to $103.08. The national average rate for 15-year fixed mortgages hit a record low in Freddie Mac's weekly survey, while national average rates for all other mortgage types continued near record lows. 

DID YOU KNOW?
... A company's Market Capitalization is the value of all outstanding shares, calculated by multiplying the total number of shares by the current market price of one share.

>> This Week’s Forecast

RETAIL SALES, THE FED AND INFLATION... Tuesday gives us Retail Sales for February, predicted to be flat, excluding auto sales, but up a bit when you include them. A few hours later that day, we'll have the FOMC Rate Decision from the Fed. No one expects them to touch the Funds Rate, but their Policy Statement will be scrutinized for its take on the economy.

The Fed keeps an eye on inflation, but we won't get those readings until Thursday's February wholesale PPI inflation and Friday's CPI consumer inflation. They're both forecast to be up overall, but the Core numbers, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are what the Fed pays attention to. They should be up just a bit, but within Fed guidelines.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Mar 12 – Mar 16

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

Tu
Mar 13

08:30

Retail Sales

Feb

1.0%

0.4%

HIGH

Tu
Mar 13

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Feb

0.7%

0.7%

HIGH

Tu
Mar 13

10:00

Business Inventories

Jan

0.6%

0.4%

Moderate

Tu
Mar 13

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

03/13

0%-0.25%

0%-0.25%

HIGH

W
Mar 14

10:30

Crude Inventories

03/10

NA

0.832M

Moderate

Th
Mar 15

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

03/10

358K

362K

Moderate

Th
Mar 15

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

03/03

3.415M

3.416M

Moderate

Th
Mar 15

08:30

Empire State Manufacturing

Mar

15.0

19.5

Moderate

Th
Mar 15

08:30

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Feb

0.5%

0.1%

Moderate

Th
Mar 15

08:30

Core PPI

Feb

0.2%

0.4%

Moderate

Th
Mar 15

10:00

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

Mar

12.5

10.2

HIGH

F
Mar 16

08:30

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Feb

0.4%

0.2%

HIGH

F
Mar 16

08:30

Core CPI

Feb

0.2%

0.2%

HIGH

F
Mar 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Feb

0.5%

0.0%

Moderate

F
Mar 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Feb

78.8%

78.5%

Moderate

F
Mar 16

09:55

Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Mar

76.0

75.3

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... No one living in the real world expects the Fed to raise the Funds Rate at this week's FOMC meeting. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Mar 13

0%–0.25%

Apr 25

0%–0.25%

Jun 20

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Mar 13

     <1%

Apr 25

     <1%

Jun 20

     <1%

 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



Equal Housing Lender  

 

Post a Comment

Brad Bergamini, real estate agent on Zillow

Share Prescott Real Estate News

Bookmark and Share

Prescott Real Estate on YouTube

Loading...

Brad Bergamini's answers on Trulia Voices

PRESCOTT, Arizona area homes for sale and listings from Brad Bergamini