News for Prescott AZ - AmericanTowns.com

Monday, November 21, 2011

Inside Lending News from Theron Wall




Inside Lending from Theron Wall
Theron Wall
Theron Wall
Sr. Mortgage Consultant
1575 Plaza West Drive, Suite C
Prescott, AZ 86303
Office: 928.445.8730
Fax: 928.445.1065
Cell: 928.533.7473
Wallick & Volk Mortgage
For the week of November 21, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 47

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall."--Confucius

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
...Last week some observers felt there were signs home building may be starting to rise. October Housing Starts came in above expectations at a 628,000 unit annual rate. Off a mere 0.3% from the month before, starts are now up 16.5% versus a year ago. Single-family starts were up 3.9% in October, so the slight monthly decline was all from those very volatile multi-family units. Multi-family starts are actually up 88.6% over a year ago.

Even better, Building Permits, which indicate where Housing Starts may be a few months out, were UP 10.9% in October, to a 653,000 annual rate. Over the last year, permits are UP 6.6% for single-family homes and UP 48.0% for multi-families. The total number of homes being built has increased three times in the last four months, after posting no increases from 2006 until four months ago. In line with all this, a national home builder index rose to its best reading since May 2010.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
...The best way to handle a complaint is to quickly address it. Studies show this often makes a customer even more likely to come back.

>> Review of Last Week

WEAK WEEK...In last week's financial and economic news, all the stories seemed to be coming out of Europe. Coverage of the debt crisis continued, and was joined by concerns that economic growth was slowing, putting some of the more troubled countries on the brink of recession. All this Euro trashing sent our stocks on a mighty slide down, the market ending up with its worst weekly performance in almost two months.

Over here, our Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index headed up, bolstering hopes for the U.S. economy. New jobless claims dropped by 5,000 last week, to 388,000, while Continuing Claims declined by 57,000, to 3.6 million. Some analysts feel November could be another month with respectable job growth. Retail sales rose for the fifth consecutive month in October and are 7.2% higher than a year ago. Vehicle sales in November are tracking at a 14 million annual rate. And consumer confidence was up for the third month in a row in early November.

For the week, the Dow ended down 2.9%, at 11796; the S&P 500 was down 3.8%, to 1216; and the Nasdaq slid 4.0%, to 2573.


The plummeting stock market help bonds somewhat. But economic data that beat expectations prevented bond prices from really taking off. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up .03, at $101.22. National average mortgage rates were little changed, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, staying at their recent extremely low levels.

DID YOU KNOW?
... This week's Durable Goods report measures consumer spending on products expected to last more than three years, such as cars, TVs and appliances. The data provides insight into the future of manufacturing.

>> This Week’s Forecast

NO TURKEYS... We can be thankful this holiday-shortened week isn't expected to serve up any turkeys via its economic reports. October Existing Home Sales shouldn't ease off too much and the Second Estimate for Q3 GDP is forecast to stay at a modest level, but none of this is awful news.

Meanwhile, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims are predicted to remain under 400,000, with Core PCE Prices expected to show inflation under control in October. The markets are closed Thursday and Friday for the holiday. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!            

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 21 – Nov 25
 Date
Time (ET)
Release
For
Consensus
Prior
Impact
M
Nov 21
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Oct
4.85M
4.91M
Moderate
Tu
Nov 22
08:30
GDP - Second Estimate
Q3
2.5%
2.5%
Moderate
Tu
Nov 22
08:30
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate
Q3
2.5%
2.5%
Moderate
Tu
Nov 22
14:00
FOMC Minutes
11/2
NA
NA
HIGH
W
Nov 23
08:30
Initial Unemployment Claims
11/19
391K
388K
Moderate
W
Nov 23
08:30
Continuing Unemployment Claims
11/12
3.620M
3.608M
Moderate
W
Nov 23
08:30
Personal Income
Oct
0.3%
0.1%
Moderate
W
Nov 23
08:30
Personal Spending
Oct
0.3%
0.6%
HIGH
W
Nov 23
08:30
Core PCE Prices
Oct
0.1%
0.1%
HIGH
W
Nov 23
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Oct
-1.0%
-0.6%
Moderate
W
Nov 23
09:55
Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final
Nov
64.2
64.2
Moderate
W
Nov 23
10:30
Crude Inventories
11/19
NA
-1.056M
Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...The Fed wants to keep the Funds rate where it is through mid-2013. Economists don't see any reason why they won't be able to. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus
Dec 13
0%–0.25%
Jan 25
0%–0.25%
Mar 13
0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus
Dec 13
     <1%
Jan 25
     <1%
Mar 13
     <1%

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



Equal Housing Lender  

This is not the opinion of Brad Bergamini, Realty Executives Northern Arizona or any of its affiliates.  This post is for informational purpose only and is not guaranteed and does not render as legal advice.  Buying and selling Real Estate in Arizona or Prescott Arizona is a serious task and should be consulted with personally with Realtor or Real Estate Attorney.  Please visit my website for contact information


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