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Monday, September 20, 2010

Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

 

 

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

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Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Branch Manager
3615 Crossings Dr, Suite A
Prescott, AZ 86305
Phone: (928) 778-7167
Mobile: (928) 533-7473
Fax: (928) 445-5308

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of September 20, 2010 – Vol. 8, Issue 38

>> Market Update 

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE  Fannie Mae released a survey showing 70% of those polled in June and July feel now is a good time to buy a home. This is up from a 64% reading in January. At the same time, 83% of those surveyed think it's a bad time to sell, which isn't such a terrible thing, since there's still plenty of inventory for buyers to choose from.

Another group of industry observers concluded that sales of existing homes hit bottom in July and will rebound in the fall. They based this on recent reports for purchase mortgage applications and pending home sales, which track signed purchase contracts for existing homes.
 

The fact remains, homes are now more affordable for more people than they've been in years. And today's historically low mortgage rates make monthly payments much easier to work into the family budget. Prices may have bottomed out indeed. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes show that nationally, home prices are 3.6% above levels a year ago. For buyers who expect to live in their home a while, many observers feel this is clearly a very smart time to purchase.

>> Review of Last Week

UP YET AGAIN... For investors on Wall Street, positive feelings continue to prevail over negative vibes and uncertainties, as stocks closed higher for the third week in a row. All the major market indexes were up, with the extra strength of the tech sector pushing the Nasdaq up well over 3%. In addition, all three indexes are now UP for the year.

Worrying investors, and everyone, were things like Thursday's report that the U.S. poverty rate was at a 16-year high. Other data showed that real median household income last year was essentially unchanged over 2008. No surprise then that Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at its lowest level since August a year ago. The day before, the Producer Price Index reported wholesale inflation a bit higher than anticipated, which got some analysts concerned that consumers might see price hikes next.

Those fears were quelled Friday with Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings that had inflation well under control at the retail level. And the 1.1% year-over-year gain in the CPI showed that those who feared deflation have nothing to worry about for now. Other encouraging signs included a rise in Industrial Production for August that met expectations and August Retail Sales that beat forecasts, evidence that consumers may be worried, but they're still spending!

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.4%, to 10607.85; the S&P 500 was UP 1.4%, to 1125.59; and the Nasdaq was UP 3.3%, to 2315.61.


It was another mixed week in the bond market, but prices held up enough. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended a mere 5 basis points ahead for the week, closing at $102.09. National average mortgage rates continue at historically low levels, though some observers do expect them to move up a little by the end of the year. 

>> This Week’s Forecast

WOO-HOO, HOUSING AND THE FED!... This week features our two favorite topics. The Fed's an easy forecast, as virtually no one breathing thinks they'll hike the Funds Rate at their meeting on Tuesday. As usual, however, their policy statement will bear scrutiny, as analysts look for signals that the rate could rise any time soon.

Tuesday's August Housing Starts
should finally show a slight uptick in activity. August Building Permits are also expected to be up a little, even though home builders remain cautious. Some experts feel we're starting to turn the corner in housing, as a bit of growth is predicted in Thursday's August Existing Home Sales and Friday's August New Home Sales

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 20 – September 24

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

Tu
Sep 21

08:30

Housing Starts

Aug

550K

546K

Moderate

Tu
Sep 21

08:30

Building Permits

Aug

560K

559K

Moderate

Tu
Sep 21

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

9/21

0%-0.25%

0%-0.25%

HIGH

W
Sep 22

10:30

Crude Inventories

9/18

NA

–2.49M

Moderate

Th
Sep 23

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

9/18

450K

450K

Moderate

Th
Sep 23

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

9/11

4.450M

4.485M

Moderate

Th
Sep 23

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Aug

4.04M

3.83M

Moderate

Th
Sep 23

10:00

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)

Aug

0.1%

0.1%

Moderate

F
Sep 24

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Aug

-1.3%

0.4%

Moderate

F
Sep 24

10:00

New Home Sales

Aug

290K

276K

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  Last week's Consumer Price Index report showed inflation still under control. So with economic growth slowing, economists overwhelmingly believe the Fed will keep rates where they are at this week's FOMC meeting and well into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Sep 21

0%–0.25%

Nov 3

0%–0.25%

Dec 14

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Sep 21

     <1%

Nov 3

     <1%

Dec 14

     <1%

 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



Equal Housing Lender  

 

This is not the opinion of Brad Bergamini, Realty Executives Northern Arizona or any of its affiliates.  This post is for informational purpose only and is not guaranteed and does not render as legal advice.  Buying and selling Real Estate in Arizona or Prescott Arizona is a serious task and should be consulted with personally with Realtor or Real Estate Attorney.  Please visit my website for contact information

http://bradbergamini.com or http://everythingprescott.com

 

 

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