News for Prescott AZ - AmericanTowns.com

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Market Trends Weekly - August 27, 2013

 

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Markets Looking for a Sign

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Last Week in Review: Housing news was front and center, and the news shows that the housing sector continues to recover--for the most part, as some of the gains in existing home sales were offset by losses in new home sales. The minutes from the Fed's July meeting were released, and unfortunately did not offer any clues as to how long The Fed's bond purchasing program will continue. We will continue to monitor for news on this topic, as the results are being watched closely, and will likely significantly impact the markets.

 

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August 27, 2013

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The last week of August brings some key reports, with news on inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Confidence, and more.

Existing Home Sales rose by 6.5 percent in July from June and are up 17.2 percent since this time last year. In addition, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices rose 7.7 percent in the year ended in June. From May to June, prices rose by 0.7 percent. However, New Home Sales dropped 13.4 percent in July from June, below expectations, and June's numbers were also revised lower.

Also of note last week, the minutes from the Fed's July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee were released--and they offered no clarity as to when the Fed will begin tapering its Bond purchases. Remember that the Fed has been buying $85 billion of Bonds a month to help stimulate the economy and housing market. This includes Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied, and these purchases have helped home loan rates remain attractive.

The Fed has said the rate of its purchases will continue to depend on economic data, and could be increased or decreased accordingly. Jobs data is one area the Fed will be watching especially closely. And last week, there was a jump in weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which rose by 13,000 to 336,000. Though this was in line with estimates and the figure remains near post-recession lows, it is the highest level in a month. However, the 4-week average, which evens out seasonal abnormalities, fell to 330,500, near 6-year lows.

What does this mean for home loan rates? Economic data in the coming weeks will be a key factor in whether the Fed begins tapering its Bond purchases as early as its meeting in mid-September, or if it waits until later in the year or even 2014. This timing could pay a big role in the direction Bonds and home loan rates move in the months ahead.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels and now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Erica Mckitrick

Erica.Mckitrick@carringtonms.com

 

 

 

 

 

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Your Carrington Loan Officer

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Erica Mckitrick
NMLS #: 249520

Erica.Mckitrick@carringtonms.com 

Scottsdale, AZ (Retail 2) AZ

 

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Carrington Retail Turn Times

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Closing your loan quickly is important to Carrington with our 25 Day Loan Closing Pledge.

Current Loan Turn Times

 

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Economic Calendar for the Week of August 26 - August 30
 

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Prior

Impact

Mon. August 26

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Jul

NA

3.9%

Moderate

Tue. August 27

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Jun

NA

12.2%

Moderate

Tue. August 27

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Aug

NA

80.3

Moderate

Wed. August 28

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Jul

NA

-0.4%

Moderate

Thu. August 29

08:30

GDP Chain Deflator

Q2

NA

0.7%

Moderate

Thu. August 29

08:30

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Q2

NA

1.7%

Moderate

Thu. August 29

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

8/24

NA

NA

Moderate

Fri. August 30

08:30

Personal Income

Jul

NA

0.3%

Moderate

Fri. August 30

08:30

Personal Spending

Jul

NA

0.5%

Moderate

Fri. August 30

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE

Jul

NA

0.2%

HIGH

Fri. August 30

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE

YOY

NA

1.2%

HIGH

Fri. August 30

08:30

Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)

Aug

NA

80.0

Moderate

Fri. August 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Aug

NA

52.3

HIGH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
© Copyright 2007-2013 Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC headquartered at 1610 E. Saint Andrew Place, Suite B-150, Santa Ana, CA 92705. Toll Free (800) 561-4567. NMLS ID #2600. Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS) Consumer Access Web Site: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org. AZ: Mortgage Banker BK-0910745; 2159 McCulloch Blvd #4, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86403. CA: Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, File No. 413 0904. CO: To check the license status of your mortgage loan originator, visit http://www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm. GA: Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee #22721. IL: Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MN: This is not an offer to enter into an interest rate lock agreement under Minnesota Law. NH: Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department. NJ: Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance. NY: Licensed Mortgage Banker—NYS Department of Financial Services. New York Mortgage Banker License #B500980/107664. OR: Mortgage Lender License #ML-4886. PA: Licensed by the Department of Banking. VA: Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission #MC-5382. RI: Rhode Island Licensed Lender, Lender License #20112809LL. WA: Consumer Loan License #CL-2600. Also licensed in CT, DC, FL, ID, IN, MD, ME, MI, NC, NM, OK, TN, TX, WI and WV. NOTICE: All loans are subject to credit, underwriting, and property approval guidelines. Offered loan products may vary by state. There is no guarantee that all borrowers will qualify. Restrictions may apply. This is not a commitment to lend. Terms, conditions, and programs are subject to change without notice. This information is for mortgage professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers. Carrington Mortgage Services is not acting on behalf of or at the direction of HUD/FHA or any office of the federal government. All rights reserved.

 

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Monday, August 26, 2013

Weekly Market Update from Curt and Shannon

 

 

August 26, 2013

Hello Brad,

'If all the cars in the United States were placed end to end, it would probably be Labor Day Weekend.' Hope you enjoy this quote – and your Labor Day adventures.

Safe travels.

Sincerely,

The Dalpiaz Team

Curt and Shannon

141 S. McCormick Street Suite #107

Prescott, AZ 86303

Ph-928-777-8971

curt.dalpiaz@academy.cc

shannon.dalpiaz@academy.cc

LO License-#0912851 LO NMLS-#151454

NMLS #243638

Taper Timing

Average 30-year fixed rate

Week of 08/23: 0.00%

Week of 08/16: +0.20%

----------------------------

Stocks (Weekly)

Dow: 15,025 -150

NASDAQ: 3,635 +25

HIGHLIGHTS

Existing Home Sales Rose to the Highest Level Since Nov. 2009.

Jobless Claims Remained Close to 5-Year Lows.

The Treasury Will Auction $98 Billion in Securities Next Week.

Euro Zone Growth Dta Was Stronger Than Expected.

 

It was a volatile week for mortgage rates. The FOMC Minutes suggested that the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchases in the near future as expected, but a surprising decline in the New Home Sales data made that outcome less certain. After the offsetting influences, mortgage rates ended the week with little change.

The FOMC Minutes from the July 31 Fed meeting were released on Wednesday, but they did little to remove the uncertainty about when the Fed will begin to scale back its bond purchase program. The main takeaway from the Minutes is that Fed officials were split at the meeting about the timing for the taper to begin. Fed officials agree that the decision should be based on the performance of the economy, but they diverge on what constitutes sufficient strength. Bottom line, though, is that there was nothing in the Minutes to contradict investor expectations that the Fed will begin to taper in September or October, and mortgage rates rose after the release of the Minutes.

Friday's New Home Sales report caught investors by surprise. Data released earlier in the week showed that July Existing Home Sales increased 7% from June and were 17% higher than one year. This lead investors to believe that the solid improvement seen in the housing sector this year would continue. However, July New Home Sales showed a decline of 13% from June. Existing Home Sales, which cover roughly 90% of home sales, are based on closings, while New Home Sales measure signed contracts. As such, New Home Sales reflect more current economic conditions than Existing Home Sales. Several Fed officials have expressed concerns that rising rates would slow the pace of economic growth. The decline in New Home Sales provides clear support that these concerns are justified. The question is whether the data will be enough to cause the Fed to hold off longer before tapering its bond purchases. The reaction from investors reflected the belief that tapering may be farther away, as mortgage rates improved after the release of the report.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Durable Orders will be released today. Pending Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Revisions to second quarter GDP will be released on Thursday. Friday will be the big day with Core PCE inflation, Personal Income, and Chicago PMI. Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment will round out the schedule. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

MON 8/19

TUE 08/20

WED 08/21

THURS 08/22

FRI 08/23

Durable Orders

 

Pending Sales

GDP

Core PCE

 

 

 

 

Chicago PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The market commentary material provided is from a third party vendor, MBSQuoteline, and is not necessarily the opinions of the sender or the organization they represent. This information is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Additionally, the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, but there is no guarantee it is without error.


All products are subject to credit and property approval. Program terms and conditions subject to change without notice. Not all products are available in all states or amounts. Other restrictions and limitations apply.

Academy Mortgage Corporation
1220 East 7800 South
Sandy, UT 84094
p. 801-233-3700

Equal Housing Lender

State Lic #LO-0912852 Corp Lic #BK-0904081 Corp NMLS #3113

Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

 

 

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

visit my website    email me now

Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Sr. Mortgage Consultant
3767 Karicio Lane, Ste B
Prescott, AZ 86303
Office: 928.445.8730
Fax: 928.445.1065
Cell: 928.533.7473

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of August 26, 2013 – Vol. 11, Issue 34

 

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal.'" --Henry Ford, American industrialist 

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
... The week ended with what some saw as an obstacle to reaching our goal of a full housing recovery. New Home Sales were reported down 13.4% in July to a 394,000 unit annual rate, well below consensus expectations. A disappointing report to be sure, but not the end of the recovery. We may have had one bad month, but we're still on an upward trend, with new home sales up 6.8% and the median new home price up 8.3% versus a year ago. Also, the recent growth of existing home inventories is drawing buyers away from new homes.

Evidence of that buyer interest in existing homes came Wednesday with the news that Existing Home Sales grew 6.5% in July, at a 5.39 million annual rate. That's the strongest pace since November 2009, and sales are now up 17.2% from a year ago. The median price dipped slightly, but is still up 13.7% versus a year ago. It was great to see sales up in all regions of the country, with single family homes leading the way, although condo/coop sales also gained. The FHFA index of prices for homes financed by conforming mortgages gained 0.6% in June and is up 7.8% in the past year. 

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... In social media marketing, grabbing people's attention is the key to success. Say something different, show something special, teach something terrific. Or just look at your competitors' efforts and do the opposite.

>> Review of Last Week

SECOND-GUESSING THE FED... It was a mixed week on Wall Street, as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq snapped their two-week losing streaks, but the Dow dropped for the third week in a row. The focus was on how soon the Fed would begin tapering its bond buying program designed to keep interest rates down. Investors fear the economy is not strong enough yet for higher rates, but Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday indicated tapering could begin in September. Freddie Mac's chief economist observed, "Several members expressed confidence the housing recovery would be resilient in the face of higher rates."

Investors were happier on Friday following comments at the Fed's conference near Jackson Hole, Wyoming. One FOMC member felt they should proceed with caution, while another said there's no reason to hurry tapering bond purchases. Friday's deep drop in New Home Sales for July was looked at by the markets as another data point to support deferring tapering for now. The jobs situation watched closely by the Fed also remains iffy. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased by 13,000, to 336,000, and Continuing Claims went up by 29,000 to just a tick under 3 million. 

The week ended with the Dow down 0.5%, to 15011; the S&P 500 up 0.5%, to 1664; and the Nasdaq up 1.5%, to 3658.

Friday's weak New Home Sales report for July boosted bonds on Friday. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up .09, to $99.10. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates edging higher for the week ending August 22. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up to the minute information. The Mortgage Bankers Association purchase loan index was up 1% for the week ending August 16.

DID YOU KNOW?
... Residential construction employment is up 4.5% year-over-year, compared to overall employment growth of just 1.7%. 

>> This Week's Forecast

PENDING HOME SALES, GDP, MIDWEST MANUFACTURING UP, INFLATION OK... After their dip in June, Pending Home Sales are expected to recover in July. This measure of contracts signed on existing homes indicates the housing recovery should continue on course. Thursday's GDP – Second Estimate is forecast to show a slightly higher growth rate for the economy in Q2, nudging just north of 2%.

The week ends with Core PCE Prices predicted to remain within the Fed's inflation guidelines. The Chicago PMI should show manufacturing in the Midwest continuing to expand at a slightly higher pace.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 26 – Aug 30

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

M
Aug 26

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Jul

–5.0%

3.9%

Moderate

Tu
Aug 27

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Aug

77.0

80.3

Moderate

W
Aug 28

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Jul

0.2%

–0.4%

Moderate

W
Aug 28

10:30

Crude Inventories

8/24

NA

–1.428M

Moderate

Th
Aug 29

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

8/24

330K

336K

Moderate

Th
Aug 29

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

8/17

2.969M

2.999M

Moderate

Th
Aug 29

08:30

GDP – 2nd estimate

Q2

2.1%

1.7%

Moderate

Th
Aug 29

08:30

GDP Deflator – 2nd estimate

Q2

0.7%

0.7%

Moderate

F
Aug 30

08:30

Personal Income

Jul

0.1%

0.3%

Moderate

F
Aug 30

08:30

Personal Spending

Jul

0.3%

0.5%

HIGH

F
Aug 30

08:30

PCE Prices – Core

Jul

0.2%

0.2%

HIGH

F
Aug 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Aug

53.0

52.3

HIGH

F
Aug 30

09:55

U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final

Aug

80.0

80.0

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The Fed may start tapering its bond buying program soon, but no one expects the Funds Rate to move from its super low level until well into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Sep 18

0%–0.25%

Oct 30

0%–0.25%

Dec 18

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Sep 18

     <1%

Oct 30

     <1%

Dec 18

     <1%

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



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