News for Prescott AZ - AmericanTowns.com

Monday, December 24, 2012

Weekly Market Update from Curt and Shannon

 

December 24, 2012

 



The Dalpiaz Team
Curt and Shannon
141 S. McCormick Street Suite #107
Prescott, AZ 86303
Ph-928-777-8971
curt.dalpiaz@academy.cc
shannon.dalpiaz@academy.cc
LO License-#0912851 LO NMLS-#151454


Hello Brad,

The end of the year is a great time to review your business. As 2012 winds down, it's important to assess the results and make the right adjustments going forward.

In today's competitive market, teamwork can play a major role in long-term success. It would be a pleasure to help.

Sincerely,

Curt and Shannon
curt.dalpiaz@AcademyMortgage.com

 

 

 

Fiscal Cliff Talks Drive Mortgage Rates

 

Highlights

Average 30 yr fixed rate

Stocks (Weekly)

 

Third quarter GDP was revised higher to 3.1% from a prior reading of 2.7%

Core PCE inflation was just 1.5% higher than one year ago

Oil prices rose above $90 per barrel for the first time since mid-October

S&P upgraded the sovereign debt of Greece due to EU aid

 

Week of 12/21: -0.01%

 

Dow: 13,100 -50

 

 

 

Week of 12/14: +0.05%

 

NASDAQ: 3,000 +25

 

 

The fiscal cliff talks were the primary influence on mortgage rates last week. As investor optimism for a deal rose and fell during the week, so did mortgage rates. For the week, mortgage rates ended just a little lower.

If no fiscal cliff deal is reached, the spending cuts and tax increases which will occur beginning January 1 are perceived as negative for stocks and positive for bonds. As a result, when comments from political leaders at the beginning of the week hinted at progress, mortgage rates moved higher and stocks gained. The reverse took place later in the week and especially on Friday following the failure in the House to pass the 'Plan B' fiscal cliff proposal. The fiscal cliff talks most likely will continue to have a major impact on mortgage rates until a deal is reached.

The housing sector data released last week was encouraging. November Existing Home Sales rose 6% to the highest level since November 2009. Total housing inventory of available existing homes declined 4% to the lowest level since September 2005. November Housing Starts declined 3%, but Building Permits increased 4% to the highest level since July 2008. The December NAHB Home Builder Confidence index rose for the eighth consecutive month to the highest level since April 2006.




Investors will be mostly focused on the fiscal cliff talks this week. It will be a light week for economic data. New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence will come out on Thursday. Chicago PMI Manufacturing and Pending Home Sales will be released on Friday. Mortgage markets will close early on Monday and will be closed on Tuesday.

 

 

 

The market commentary material provided is from a third party vendor, MBSQuoteline, and is not necessarily the opinions of the sender or the organization they represent. This information is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Additionally, the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, but there is no guarantee it is without error.

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Sandy, UT 84094
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Inside Lending News From Theron Wall

 

 

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

visit my website    email me now

Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Sr. Mortgage Consultant
3767 Karicio Lane, Ste B
Prescott, AZ 86303
Office: 928.445.8730
Fax: 928.445.1065
Cell: 928.533.7473

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of December 24, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 52

 

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Every path hath a puddle."--George Herbert, Welsh-British poet, orator, and priest

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
... Last week, the path to recovery in the housing market required us to step over the puddle of a 3% dip in Housing Starts for November. Yet that path has also taken us to an annual rate of 861,000 units, putting overall starts UP 21.6% versus a year ago, and single family starts UP 22.8%. New Building Permits were UP 3.6% in November, so no puddles in that path where single-family permits are UP 25.3% over a year ago. No wonder the NAHB homebuilder confidence index gained for the eighth month in a row.

Data over on the existing home front was even rosier.
Existing Home Sales went UP 5.9% in November, crossing the 5 million unit threshold, at 5.04 million homes. Those sales are UP 14.5% from a year ago. The median price is UP 10.1% in November, going to $180,600, as the months' supply of existing homes plummeted to 4.8 months. The FHFA index of prices for homes financed by conforming loans gained 0.5% in October, UP 5.6% versus a year ago.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... If you're persuasive about your product or service, clearly explaining its advantages and benefits, then you don't really have to "sell."

>> Review of Last Week

CLIFF WALKING... Investors basically fixated on Washington's fiscal cliff negotiations. The week began optimistically, and stocks followed suit, heading upward dramatically. But later in the week, a resolution to the tax and spending issues looked less certain, and stock prices faded. Congress then went into recess for the holiday, but planned to return this Thursday if there's a deal of some sort to consider. Nonetheless, all three stock market indexes posted gains for the week.

Investors were encouraged when Q3 GDP was revised up to 3.1% annual growth from the prior 2.7% estimate. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index reported expansion in December, although the New York Empire Manufacturing Index indicated contraction. Personal Income was up in November and Core PCE Prices, excluding volatile food and energy, showed inflation up only 1.5% for the year. Unfortunately, Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropped to its lowest level since January. Too much fiscal cliff reporting, no doubt.

For the week, the Dow ended up 0.4%, to 13191; the S&P 500 was up 1.2%, to 1430; and the Nasdaq was up 1.7%, to 3021.

Activity in the bond market was held in check by the continuing political back-and-forth over how to stop the economy from going of over a fiscal cliff. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .09, at $106.14. National average mortgage rates were again at or near historic lows in Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported demand for purchase loans fell slightly for the week, but are UP 9% versus a year ago

DID YOU KNOW?
... "Market capitalization" refers to the total value of a company's stock, obtained by multiplying the number of shares outstanding by the current price per share. A company with 15 million shares at $20 has a market cap of $300 million.

>> This Week's Forecast

NEW HOME SALES, PENDING HOME SALES, CONSUMERS, FACTORIES... A short week features some nice holiday presents if you like receiving economic data. November New Home Sales look to be inching up to a 379,000 annual rate. Pending Home Sales are forecast up, but less than the prior month. December Consumer Confidence is expected down from last month's reading, but the Chicago PMI Index of Midwest manufacturing should be up a bit, showing growth.

Today, stock markets close at 1 PM ET, the U.S. Treasury market closes at 2 PM ET, and all are closed tomorrow, in observance of Christmas. Happy Holidays to all!

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Dec 24 – Dec 28

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

Th
Dec 27

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

12/22

375K

361K

Moderate

Th
Dec 27

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

12/15

3.200M

3.225M

Moderate

Th
Dec 27

10:00

New Home Sales

Nov

379K

368K

Moderate

Th
Dec 27

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Dec

70.0

73.7

Moderate

F
Dec 28

09:45

Chicago PMI Index

Dec

51.0

50.4

HIGH

F
Dec 28

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Nov

1.0%

5.2%

Moderate

F
Dec 28

11:00

Crude Inventories

12/21

NA

–0.964M

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The Fed announced at their last meeting they'd keep the Funds Rate super low until unemployment drops to 6.5%, but no one expects that to happen any time soon Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Jan 30

0%–0.25%

Mar 20

0%–0.25%

May 1

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Jan 30

     <1%

Mar 20

     <1%

May 1

     <1%

UIE 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



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MCID900139960

 

Monday, December 17, 2012

Are you pre-approved for a mortgage?

 

 

Update from The Bergamini Group at Realty Executives Northern Arizona

I wanted to check in one last time and see if you are still actively looking to buy a home. If so, you might find the daily home alert emails to be really helpful. They can notify you immediately every time a home comes on the market. You can set alerts up below, or just let me know and I can set them up for you.

Sign up today

Are you pre-approved for a mortgage?

One of the most important things in taking the first step toward home-ownership is pre-approval for a home loan. These days most sellers will NOT accept an offer without at least a pre-approval letter, so if you are serious about buying this is the first step towards getting you in your new home.

If you have any questions about financing a home, please feel free to call or email.



If you need absolutely anything please feel free to call or email.

Brad Bergamini, Vanessa Hartline, and Pamela Martin
The Bergamini Group
Realty Executives Northern Arizona
Team: 928.237.4400
Free: 888.533.3839
Office: 928.777.0257
Email: re@WelcometoPrescott.com
www.PrescottAZRealty.com
www.EverythingPrescott.com
www.BradBergamini.com
www.WelcomeToPrescott.com
www.PrescottLifestyle.com


 

Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

 

 

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

visit my website    email me now

Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Sr. Mortgage Consultant
3767 Karicio Lane, Ste B
Prescott, AZ 86303
Office: 928.445.8730
Fax: 928.445.1065
Cell: 928.533.7473

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of December 17, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 51

 

Our hearts and prayers go out to the families and community of Newtown, Connecticut.

>> Review of Last Week

UNCERTAINTY TAKES ITS TOLL... There are just two weeks to go for politicians to broker a deal to stop the country from going over a fiscal cliff of draconian tax hikes and spending cuts. Unfortunately, Washington isn't proceeding with much urgency. Investors reacted poorly to the uncertainty as all three major stock indexes slipped for the week. Not helping things, the economic data was mixed, as inflation cooled and Industrial Production beat expectations, but Retail Sales missed consensus targets.

The big news came out of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The Fed Funds Rate wasn't touched, but
the FOMC Committee announced it would now keep the Rate at these super low levels as long as unemployment stays above 6.5%. Most economists think that will be a very long time. To support this policy, once the current "Operation Twist" bond buying program ends, the Fed will start purchasing $45 billion worth of Treasuries each month, indefinitely.

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.2%, to 13135; the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, to 1414; and the Nasdaq was down 0.2%, to 2971. 


In spite of this week's Fed announcement, there was a bit of a sell-off in long term bonds. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .08, at $106.15. Nonetheless, the Fed did signal that the measures they're taking to keep interest rates low will remain in place for a good long while. So national average mortgage rates stayed at or near record lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported demand for purchase loans gained for the fifth week in a row, up 9% over a year ago. 

DID YOU KNOW?
... Fiscal policy refers to decisions by the President and Congress about taxation and government spending. Economists explain that when taxes increase, more money goes to the government, so consumers have less to spend on goods and services to grow the economy and create jobs.

>> This Week’s Forecast

HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, MANUFACTURING, GDP, INFLATION... November Housing Starts are forecast down a little, although Building Permits are expected up for the month. Existing Home Sales should be up in November, inching ever closer to the 5 million mark. Manufacturing should look better, with the NY Empire and Philadelphia Fed Indexes both back in positive growth territory.

Thursday, the Third Estimate of Q3 GDP is predicted to remain at 2.7%, putting our economic growth just below where it needs to be. Friday's Personal Income and Spending are both expected up for November, with Core PCE Prices showing inflation still under control.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Dec 17 – Dec 21

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

M
Dec 17

08:30

NY Empire Manufacturing Index

Dec

2.0

–5.2

Moderate

W
Dec 19

08:30

Housing Starts

Nov

873K

894K

Moderate

W
Dec 19

08:30

Building Permits

Nov

876K

866K

Moderate

W
Dec 19

10:30

Crude Inventories

12/15

NA

0.843M

Moderate

Th
Dec 20

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

12/15

345K

343K

Moderate

Th
Dec 20

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

12/8

3.192M

3.198M

Moderate

Th
Dec 20

08:30

GDP – 3rd Estimate

Q3

2.7%

2.7%

Moderate

Th
Dec 20

08:30

GDP Deflator– 3rd Estimate

Q3

2.7%

2.7%

Moderate

Th
Dec 20

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Nov

4.90M

4.79M

Moderate

Th
Dec 20

10:00

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Dec

1.0

–10.7

HIGH

Th
Dec 20

10:00

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index

Nov

–0.2%

0.2%

Moderate

F
Dec 21

08:30

Personal Income

Nov

0.3%

0.0%

Moderate

F
Dec 21

08:30

Personal Spending

Nov

0.3%

–0.2%

HIGH

F
Dec 21

08:30

PCE Prices – Core

Nov

0.1%

0.1%

HIGH

F
Dec 21

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Nov

0.2%

0.5%

Moderate

F
Dec 21

09:55

U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final

Dec

74.0

74.5

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Last Wednesday's Fed announcement told us they're tying a rate hike to employment targets, but economists don't expect to see those numbers any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Jan 30

0%–0.25%

Mar 20

0%–0.25%

May 1

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Jan 30

     <1%

Mar 20

     <1%

May 1

     <1%

 

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

Tu
Dec 11

08:30

Trade Balance

Oct

–$42.2B

–$41.5B

Moderate

W
Dec 12

10:30

Crude Inventories

12/8

NA

–2.357M

Moderate

W
Dec 12

12:30

FOMC Rate Decision

Dec

0%–0.25%

0%–0.25%

HIGH

W
Dec 12

14:00

Federal Deficit

Nov

–$B

–$137.3B

Moderate

Th
Dec 13

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

12/8

382K

393K

Moderate

Th
Dec 13

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

12/1

3.275M

3.287M

Moderate

Th
Dec 13

08:30

Retail Sales

Nov

0.2%

–0.3%

HIGH

Th
Dec 13

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Nov

–0.2%

0.0%

HIGH

Th
Dec 13

08:30

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Nov

–0.6%

–0.2%

Moderate

Th
Dec 13

08:30

Core PPI

Nov

0.2%

–0.2%

Moderate

Th
Dec 13

10:00

Business Inventories

Oct

0.5%

0.7%

Moderate

F
Dec 14

08:30

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Nov

–0.3%

0.1%

HIGH

F
Dec 14

08:30

Core CPI

Nov

0.2%

0.2%

HIGH

F
Dec 14

09:15

Industrial Production

Nov

0.2%

–0.4%

Moderate

F
Dec 14

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Nov

78.4%

77.8%

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... This Wednesday we'll see if the Fed says anything different about keeping the Funds Rate at super low levels "at least through mid-2015." Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Dec 12

0%–0.25%

Jan 30

0%–0.25%

Mar 20

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Dec 12

     <1%

Jan 30

     <1%

Mar 20

     <1%

UIE 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



Equal Housing Lender  

MCID900139960

 

Thursday, December 13, 2012

351 Milky Way, Prescott, AZ

 

 

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Bedrooms: 3
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928-237-4400
Licensed In: Arizona
License #: SA532126000

 

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