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Monday, June 20, 2011

Economic Roundup: June 20, 2011

 

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In the News

Retail sales for May appeared to take a slight dip, marking the first drop in U.S. retail performance in 11 months. Advance estimates for May's retail sales dipped to $387.1 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent from April, according to the latest figures released by the Census Bureau last week.
 
That said, May's performance was still up from last year, ringing in at 7.7 percent above May 2010. Also, total sales for the March through May 2011 period were up 7.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
 
Poor car sales were the main cause of the drop, falling 2.9 percent. Excluding auto sales, core retail sales increased 3 percent. That said, gasoline stations were up 3 percent, as well.
 
"The better-than-expected core retail sales is the key data release this morning," Standard Chartered's U.S. economist David Semmens told England's Financial Times. "It indicates that the U.S. consumer has the potential to recover from the gasoline-related hit."
 
In related news, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
 
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in May, its largest increase since July 2008. Apparel, shelter, new vehicles and recreation were key contributors to the rise, gaining more in May than in April.
 
Notably, food prices were up for May, with the food at home index gaining 0.5 percent after four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased, with the index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs rising the most.
 
Interestingly, while retail sales at gas stations were up, the gasoline index decreased for the first time since last June, the Bureau said. In fact, the overall energy index declined for the month.
 
The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed similar performance for May, with the PPI for finished goods rising 0.2 percent for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported last week. While up, May's PPI indicated a tapering in advances. May's 0.2 percent gain followed increases of 0.8 percent in April and 0.7 percent in March.
 
In housing news for May, construction permits issued for private housing were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 612,000, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing reported last week. This marked an 8.7 percent gain over April's revised rate of 563,000 and was 5.2 percent above the May 2010 estimate of 582,000. Permits for single-family home construction issued in May were at a rate of 405,000; this is 2.5 percent above the revised April figure of 395,000.
 
Construction starts on private homes in May reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000, which was 3.5 percent over April's revised estimate of 541,000, but was 3.4 percent below the May 2010 rate of 580,000. Starts on single-family homes in May were at a rate of 419,000, 3.7 percent over April's revised figure of 404,000.
 
In employment news, first-time claims for unemployment insurance dipped to 414,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 430,000, the Employment and Training Administration reported last week. Despite the dip, the four-week moving average was 424,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 424,750.
 
Total insured unemployment during the week ending June 4 dropped to 3,675,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,696,000. The four-week moving average was 3,709,000, a decrease of 15,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,724,250.
 
This week has a somewhat light schedule of economic headlines, starting tomorrow with existing home sales figures for May from the National Association of REALTORS®.
 
The Census Bureau follows Thursday with new home sales data for May. Also on Thursday, the Employment and Training Administration will release initial jobless claims data for last week.
 
The week's headlines wrap up Friday with Q1 GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and May's durable goods orders from the Census Bureau.
 
 

 

 

© 2011 W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp., 201 Columbine Street Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206. Phone #303-825-5670. NMLS ID 3233. Trade/service marks are the property of W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. Some products may not be available in all states.  WJB is not acting on behalf of or at the direction of HUD/FHA or the federal government.

AZ License # BK-0903998; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act RML# 4131002; To check the license status of your CO Mortgage Broker, visit www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm; Florida Mortgage Lender license #ML.100000098; ID Mortgage Broker License No. MBL-2803; IL Residential Mortgage Licensee – License #MB.6760738, 201 Columbine Street, Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206; MN Residential Mortgage Originator License No. 20447094; NV Mortgage Banker License No. 2061; NV Mortgage Broker License No. 504; NM Mortgage Loan Company and Loan Broker Act Reg. No. 01856; OK Mortgage Broker- License No. MB001365; OR Mortgage Lender License No. ML-776; TX Mortgage Banker Reg. No. 74182; UT Mortgage Lender Company License No. 5495659-NMLC; Vermont Broker License #0995MB; Vermont Lender License #6141; WA Consumer Loan License No. CL-3233; Wisconsin Mortgage Banker License No. 699991.  NMLS consumer access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/EntityDetails.aspx/COMPANY/3233.

 

 

Monday, June 13, 2011

Economic Roundup: June 13, 2011

 

 


In the News

Consumer credit increased for the seventh straight month in a row in April, with consumers racking up $2.428 trillion in total credit, a $6.25 billion jump from March's total figure, the Federal Reserve reported last week.
 
Revolving debt, such as credit cards, for April dropped slightly to $790.1 billion from March's $791.1 billion, but non-revolving debt such as home loans and school loans increased to $1.638 trillion over March's $1.630 trillion. This increase was in line with auto sales and price data for the month, according to analysts and economists.
 
"The non-revolving component has increased nine months in a row and is consistent with the strong vehicle sales data we have seen over that period," wrote Theresa Chen of Barclays Capital in an email statement about the Federal Reserve's data.
 
Meanwhile April's wholesale sales, except those of manufacturers' branch offices, increased 0.3 percent from March to $393.5 billion, and were up a whopping 14.4 percent from the year prior, the Census Bureau reported last week. In terms of sales for specific wholesale segments, sales of durable goods were down 0.6 percent for the month; sales of lumber and construction materials were down 5 percent; sales of metals and minerals (except petroleum) were down 3.6 percent; sales of non-durable goods were up 0.9 percent; and sales of petroleum and petroleum products were up 2.3 percent.
 
Wholesalers' total inventories for April were $44.7 billion, a 0.8 increase over March, and a 13.8 percent jump from March 2010. This put April's inventory-to-sales ratio for wholesalers at 1.14, the exact same ratio they had in April 2010.
 
Moving to more up-to-the-minute statistics, first-time claims for unemployment insurance took an unexpected upturn for the week ending June 4, according to figures released by the Employment and Training Administration last week. While analysts had expected a sizable drop of roughly 5,000, claims instead jumped by 1,000 to 427,000 over the previous week's figure of 426,000, the administration reported.
 
That said, the administration also noted last week that the four-week moving average was 424,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 426,750. The total number for insured unemployed workers during the week ending May 28 was 3,676,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,747,000. The four-week moving average was 3,719,250, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,748,250.
 
This week has a busy agenda of economic headlines slated, starting off tomorrow with May's retail sales figures from the Census Bureau. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May's producer price index that day, as well, and follows with that month's consumer price index on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, the Census Bureau will report May's industrial production and business inventories, as well as the total capacity utilization for that month.
 
On Thursday the Employment and Training Administration releases initial jobless claims data for last week and the Census Bureau releases data for construction permit and housing starts for May. The week wraps on Friday with the Leading Economic Indicators index for May from the Conference Board.
 
 

 

 

© 2011 W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp., 201 Columbine Street Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206. Phone #303-825-5670. NMLS ID 3233. Trade/service marks are the property of W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. Some products may not be available in all states.  WJB is not acting on behalf of or at the direction of HUD/FHA or the federal government.

AZ License # BK-0903998; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act RML# 4131002; To check the license status of your CO Mortgage Broker, visit www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm; Florida Mortgage Lender license #ML.100000098; ID Mortgage Broker License No. MBL-2803; IL Residential Mortgage Licensee – License #MB.6760738, 201 Columbine Street, Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206; MN Residential Mortgage Originator License No. 20447094; NV Mortgage Banker License No. 2061; NV Mortgage Broker License No. 504; NM Mortgage Loan Company and Loan Broker Act Reg. No. 01856; OK Mortgage Broker- License No. MB001365; OR Mortgage Lender License No. ML-776; TX Mortgage Banker Reg. No. 74182; UT Mortgage Lender Company License No. 5495659-NMLC; Vermont Broker License #0995MB; Vermont Lender License #6141; WA Consumer Loan License No. CL-3233; Wisconsin Mortgage Banker License No. 699991.  NMLS consumer access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/EntityDetails.aspx/COMPANY/3233.

 


 

Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

 

 

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

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Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Sr. Mortgage Consultant
1575 Plaza West Drive, Suite C
Prescott, AZ 86303
Office: 928.445.8730
Fax: 928.445.1065
Cell: 928.533.7473

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of June 13, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 24

>> Market Update 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so."--William Shakespeare

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
... There are those who think the housing market is in bad shape, with the start of a second dip in home prices. Then there are those who see something better -- a bumpy bottoming of home prices, which will soon head back up. Those of us in the second camp were given more ammunition last week by real estate data company Altos Research. Their evidence shows prices bottomed out in March and achieved seasonal rises in April and May. Their VP of market analytics said in a recent webcast: "We're pretty confident that means there is going to be a rebound.... There's still plenty of movement upside and we're going to probably move...back into positive ground."

The researchers also reported that median list prices for single-family homes were up from March to May in all but two of the 20 cities they track. They further pointed out that, except for the last boom, the housing market historically has never seen constant price appreciation. There has always been some price volatility, so the latest dipping "...is really just the start of the next housing cycle." Other industry data revealed that in real estate listings in 16 of the 20 largest U.S. metro areas, the average number of days on the market dropped from 150 in December to 140, while median listing prices went from $224,900 to $246,000. This is not yet a housing recovery, but it's also not a double dip.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Don't play favorites. Yes, lavish your attention on those wonderful new customers you need to grow, but make sure you still treat existing clients like VIPs. One way to do this is with special offers and loyalty rewards for long-term and returning customers.

>> Review of Last Week

UNDER TWELVE THOUSAND...That's not just a price range for used cars, it's also where the Dow landed last week. Not surprising, as we've now had six down weeks in the stock market, matching the six weeks there's been a negative mood on Wall Street. That mood of course has come from signs of a slowdown in the economic recovery, even though there have also been signs of economic progress. Speaking in Atlanta on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke admitted that our economic growth has been slower than expected this year. He also said the inflation triggered by higher energy prices was a passing thing and that the economy should get its mojo back in the second half of the year. But even then, Bernanke feels economic conditions will still justify keeping the federal funds rate at exceptionally low levels for the now familiar "extended period." 

More disappointing news came with new weekly jobless claims up by 1,000 and still above the 400,000 threshold. Better news was the fact that continuing claims dipped again, to 3.68 million. Best news of all, the trade deficit shrank $3.1 billion in April to $43.7 billion. And the March trade deficit was revised to be $1.4 billion less than originally reported. These smaller trade deficits will raise the reading for GDP growth.

For the week, the Dow ended down 1.6%, at 11,952; the S&P 500 was down 2.2%, at 1,271; and the Nasdaq was down 3.3%, at 2,644.


The stock slide helped Treasury bonds rally, although the bulls were by no means dominant. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended the week down .78, closing at $100.24. Nevertheless, national average rates for fixed-rate conforming mortgages dropped for the eighth week in a row, to their lowest levels since November. Freddie Mac's survey also had 1-year adjustable-rate mortgages at their lowest level in the report's history.

DID YOU KNOW?
...Bathroom remodels have the highest average return on investment, around 102%. Kitchen remodels record the second highest average return, around 90%.

>> This Week’s Forecast

STORE SALES, PRICE MOVES,  HOME BUILDING...Last week's lull in economic news will now be followed by a barrage of data from all directions. One report that matters is May Retail Sales, expected to dip slightly overall, but gain slightly when you take out slowing auto sales. The prices we consumers pay will be reflected in the inflation reports. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to come in flat, while the Core CPI, taking out food and gas, should be up 0.2%, not going in the right direction.

Thursday reveals the status of homebuilding. May Housing Starts are expected up a bit, although not back to their pre-downturn levels. May Building Permits, indicating starts a short time out, should also come in at a similar rate, though down slightly from April.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 13 – June 17

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

Tu
Jun 14

08:30

Retail Sales

May

-0.7%

0.5%

HIGH

Tu
Jun 14

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

May

0.2%

0.6%

HIGH

Tu
Jun 14

08:30

Producer Price Index (PPI)

May

0.1%

0.8%

Moderate

Tu
Jun 14

08:30

Core PPI

May

0.2%

0.3%

Moderate

Tu
Jun 14

10:00

Business Inventories

Apr

1.0%

1.0%

Moderate

W
Jun 15

08:30

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

May

0.1%

0.4%

HIGH

W
Jun 15

08:30

Core CPI

May

0.1%

0.2%

HIGH

W
Jun 15

08:30

Empire State Manufacturing Index

Jun

10.0

11.9

Moderate

W
Jun 15

09:15

Industrial Production

May

0.2%

0.0%

Moderate

W
Jun 15

09:15

Capacity Utilization

May

77.0%

76.9%

Moderate

W
Jun 15

10:30

Crude Inventories

6/11

NA

-4.845K

Moderate

Th
Jun 16

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

6/11

421K

427K

Moderate

Th
Jun 16

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

6/04

3.690M

3.676M

Moderate

Th
Jun 16

08:30

Housing Starts

May

540K

523K

Moderate

Th
Jun 16

08:30

Building Permits

May

548K

551K

Moderate

Th
Jun 16

10:00

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Jun

7.0

3.9

HIGH

F
Jun 17

09:55

Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Jun

73.5

74.3

Moderate

F
Jun 17

10:00

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index

May

0.4%

-0.3%

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...As Fed Chairman Bernanke said yet again last week, he expects that the slow pace of the recovery will warrant keeping the Funds Rate at its super low 0%-0.25% level for an extended period. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Jun 22

0%–0.25%

Aug 9

0%–0.25%

Sep 20

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Jun 22

     <1%

Aug 9

     <1%

Sep 20

     <1%

Dce 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412

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Monday, June 06, 2011

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