News for Prescott AZ - AmericanTowns.com

Monday, January 31, 2011

Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

 

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

visit my website     email me now

Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Branch Manager
3615 Crossings Dr, Suite A
Prescott, AZ 86305
Phone: (928) 778-7167
Mobile: (928) 533-7473
Fax: (928) 445-5308

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of January 31, 2011 – Vol. 9, Issue 5

>> Market Update 

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Last week was packed with housing market data and the news does keep getting better even though the media hasn't caught on quite yet. Wednesday saw December New Home Sales UP 17.5%, blowing away forecasts with a 329,000 annual rate. The supply of new homes dropped to 6.9 months and the new homes inventory slid to 190,000, down 66.8% from its 2006 peak and at the lowest level since 1968. More good news came with an 8.5% boost in the median home price versus a year ago, to $241,500, its highest level since April 2008. The average home price registered a 4.7% gain compared to a year ago.

Speaking of prices, the Case-Shiller home price index for the 20 largest metro areas was down 0.5% in November, better than expected. Although prices are off 1.6% in the past year, they're still up 1.2% from the low they hit in May 2009. Inspired by the November slip, pundits fretted about a possible "double dip" in housing prices. But a chart of the Case-Shiller index for the 10 largest metro areas shows the trend in prices, adjusted for inflation, is essentially flat, perhaps rising a bit, since early last year. And the nominal value of the index is almost 5% ABOVE its April 2009 low. A rational mind might conclude housing prices have finally bottomed, 5 years after hitting their peak.

Buyers are supporting this notion, sending Pending Home Sales, tracking contracts signed on existing homes, UP 2.0% in December. This report has now had three strong months in a row, so existing homes sales, tracking actual closings, should stay on the increase in January.

>> Review of Last Week

LET'S NOT GET CARRIED AWAY... Just as we were all set to celebrate an eight-week winning streak for the stock market, Friday treated us to the biggest one-day drop in months, with the Dow falling 166 points on fears over Egyptian unrest. As oil prices rose, investors seeking safety sold off their equity positions, but losses were modest in the end. All three major indexes were down for the week by half a percent or less.

The economic data keeps offering encouragement, but Wall Street always first looks to corporate earnings to gauge how we're doing. Last week saw 14 Dow components reporting Q4 numbers and 11 of them did better than expected. Some missed their revenue targets and issued lukewarm guidance going forward. But overall, the corporate earnings picture continues to show a preponderance of strong performances in spite of the slow rate of economic recovery.

Durable Goods Orders were down in December but this was almost all due to a drop in volatile civilian aircraft. Orders for "core" capital goods are actually UP two months in a row. Weekly initial jobless claims were up, but they included the prior week's claims that were delayed by snowstorms in the South. Housing showed the upbeat signs mentioned above. Best of all, the first estimate for Q4 GDP came in at a 3.2% annual growth rate. This was a little lower than expected, but exports were super strong and consumer spending was UP a very healthy 4.4% annually, its fastest rate in almost five years. 

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.4%, at 11824; the S&P 500 was off 0.5%, to 1276; but the Nasdaq dropped just 0.1%, ending at 2687.


Bonds prices were helped by some well-received auctions Wednesday and Thursday, followed by the flight to safety on Friday, courtesy of falling stocks. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended UP 78 basis points for the week, closing at $99.09. This bodes well for mortgage rates, although Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages reported average fixed-rate mortgage rates inching up slightly, thanks to the strengthening economy. Still, mortgage rates do remain at super low levels.

>> This Week’s Forecast

FOCUSING ON WHAT THE FED FOCUSES ON... The Fed has a dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting job growth. What happens with the Fed Funds Rate depends on what's going on in those two areas, which bracket this week's economic news. Monday, we get the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, Core PCE Prices, expected to stay well under control. Friday's January Employment Report is forecast to add 150,000 jobs, which is all to the good, but not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from edging up a tad as the workforce grows.

Other key economic indicators include Monday's Chicago PMI take on Midwest manufacturing, Tuesday's ISM manufacturing index and Thursday's ISM services index. All are expected to continue to show expansion, with readings over 50.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 31 – February 4

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

M
Jan 31

08:30

Personal Income

Dec

0.5%

0.3%

Moderate

M
Jan 31

08:30

Personal Spending 

Dec

0.6%

0.4%

HIGH

M
Jan 31

08:30

PCE Prices - Core

Dec

0.1%

0.1%

HIGH

M
Jan 31

09:45

Chicago PMI

Jan

65.0

66.8

HIGH

Tu
Feb 1

10:00

ISM Index

Jan

58.2

58.5

HIGH

W
Feb 2

10:30

Crude Inventories

1/29

NA

4.84M

Moderate

Th
Feb 3

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

1/29

425K

454K

Moderate

Th
Feb 3

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

1/29

3.925M

3.991M

Moderate

Th
Feb 3

08:30

Productivity-Prelim.

Q4

2.2%

2.3%

Moderate

Th
Feb 3

10:00

ISM Services Index

Jan

57.0

57.1

Moderate

F
Feb 4

08:30

Average Workweek

Jan

34.3

34.3

HIGH

F
Feb 4

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Jan

0.2%

0.1%

HIGH

F
Feb 4

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Jan

150K

103K

HIGH

F
Feb 4

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Jan

9.6%

9.4%

HIGH

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  The Fed's statement coming out of last week's meeting continued to tout their view that the Funds Rate needs to stay at its rock bottom level until the recovery picks up considerably. This week's economic reports shouldn't inspire the Fed to hike the Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Mar 15

0%–0.25%

Apr 27

0%–0.25%

Jun 22

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Mar 15

     <1%

Apr 27

     <1%

Jun 22

     <1%

 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



Equal Housing Lender  

 

Monday, January 24, 2011

Economic Roundup: January 24, 2011




https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/Wjb_Logo.gif

In the News
Real estate dominated last week's financial headlines, with the big story being a sharp rise in sales of existing homes for December, according to a report from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

Sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops rose 12.3 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million from November's 4.7 million, marking the fifth sales gain in six months. That said, December's sales remain 2.9 percent below the 5.44 million pace of December 2009.

"December was a good finish to 2010, when sales fluctuate more than normal," noted NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. "The pattern over the past six months is clearly showing a recovery. The December pace is near the volume we're expecting for 2011, so the market is getting much closer to an adequate, sustainable level.

"The recovery will likely continue as job growth gains momentum and rising rents encourage more renters into ownership while exceptional affordability conditions remain," he added.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $168,800 in December, marking a 1 percent decline from December 2009. This decline could most likely be chalked up to sales of distressed homes, according to Yun. Distressed homes rose to a 36 percent market share in December, from 33 percent in November and 32 percent in December 2009. Distressed homes are typically discounted 10 to 15 percent relative to traditional homes, which would dampen median prices, Yun explained.

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 4.2 percent to 3.56 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from November's 9.5-month supply.

Meanwhile, permits for privately owned homes in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000, which was a rousing 16.7 percent over November's revised rate of 544,000, according to figures released last week by the Census Bureau. Permits for single-family homes in December were at a rate of 440,000; this is 5.5 percent over the revised November figure of 417,000. December's overall figure for housing permits was still 6.8 percent below the December 2009 estimate of 681,000.

Starts on construction of privately owned housing in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000. This was 4.3 percent below November's revised estimate of 553,000 and 8.2 percent below December 2009's rate of 576,000. Starts on single-family homes for last month were at a rate of 417,000, which was 9 percent below the revised November figure of 458,000.

Completions on privately owned housing in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 585,000, which was 4.1 percent over November's revised estimate of 562,000, but is 22.2 percent below December 2009's rate of 752,000. Completions of single-family homes in December were at a rate of 463,000, which was 5.5 percent over November's revised rate of 439,000.

Another encouraging piece of news was the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 15, which rang in well below the previous figure form the Department of Labor's figures for the previous week. In the week ending January 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 404,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 441,000. The four-week moving average was 411,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 415,750.

This week the Conference Board will continue its announcements with consumer confidence figures for January on Tuesday. The Census Bureau will release its new home sales data for December on Wednesday, which is expected to show an increase over November. The Bureau will also release durable goods orders for December on Thursday, which are expected to show an increase after November's drop.

The week will close with the Bureau of Economic Analysis's release of the gross domestic product for Q4 2010 on Friday. Analysts are expecting a 3.8 percent gain over the prior quarter. Also on Friday, the University of Michigan will release its consumer confidence figure for January.

 
https://store.velma.com/PFWeb/OutputHTML/D-86297F6F/0000002_output/Images/aef143d5-ae34-4dcb-8da2-9763b5c204b0_EmailPersonalPhoto.jpg
https://www.wjbradley.com/email/forVelma/spacer.gif
Mark Ott
Loan Officer
W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.
Office: 928-775-9330
NMLS: 189552
License: BK-0903998
https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/spacer.gif
https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/spacer.gif

https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/spacer.gif


<![if !vml]><![endif]>© 2011 W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp., 201 Columbine Street Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206. Phone #303-825-5670. NMLS ID 3233. Trade/service marks are the property of W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. Some products may not be available in all states.

Alabama Consumer Credit License MC 20878; AZ License # BK-0903998; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act RML# 4131002; To check the license status of your CO Mortgage Broker, visit www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm; Florida Mortgage Lender license #ML.100000098; ID Mortgage Broker License No. MBL-2803; IL Residential Mortgage Licensee – License #MB.6760738, 201 Columbine Street, Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206; MI First Mortgage License No. FL0011392; MN Residential Mortgage Originator License No. 20447094; NV Mortgage Banker License No. 2061; NV Mortgage Broker License No. 504; NM Mortgage Loan Company and Loan Broker Act Reg. No. 01856; OK Mortgage Broker- License No. MB001365; OR Mortgage Lender License No. ML-776; TX Mortgage Banker Reg. No. 74182; UT Mortgage Lender Company License No. 5495659-MLCO; Vermont Broker License #0995MB; Vermont Lender License #6141; WA Consumer Loan License No. CL-3233; Wisconsin Mortgage Banker License No. 699991.



Friday, January 07, 2011

Inside Out - Monthly Home Improvement Tips

 

 

 

 

 

Happy January Brad!

Happy New Year! With the holidays now behind us, it’s time to get back to business and start planning for the year ahead. For some, that might mean potential home renovations or even putting their home on the market. For others, it could mean organization in preparation for their first home purchase.

Whatever your needs, Lowe’s is here to help. From home organization supplies to paint, lighting and everything in between, Lowe’s has you covered.

- {Affiliate}. REALTOR®. | contact me

 

Hangin' at Home

Use these tips to create a basement that is made for fun and function - the kids will love it.

 

Trend Update Kitchens: The Power of Fit and Finish

With the cold weather upon us, creating a warm and inviting kitchen can make a big difference in a home’s overall appeal. With a few well-chosen finish updates, you can shift tone and mood and purchase interest. Fit and finish in a room convey quality - or lack thereof - so it’s important to look around and pay attention to details.

Color and light are the easiest, most cost-efficient elements to add warmth to the kitchen, and you need go no further than the vegetable bin or spice cabinet for inspiration. A scheme of natural greens, yellows, mustards and russets washed with dimmable overhead and under-cabinet lighting can add energy as well as create a level of calm…a kitchen for any mood. If the existing cabinets are sturdy but the finish is sending out a distress signal, a well-executed paint job can turn it around . Mismatched appliances and worn flooring are other leading visual cues, so if the budget permits, replace them.

 

Selling 9 Staging Tips to Sell Your Home Quickly

Put your home center stage with these thrifty tips.

Read more

Buying 7 Questions You Must Ask Before Buying a Condo

Here are seven important questions you need to ask before buying a condo.

Read more

Moving 12 Tips to Make Your Move Simple and Stress-Free

Use these tips to make your move simple and avoid a hassle.

Read more

 

 

RISMedia Real Estate News
Brought to you by RISMedia

RealTown Real Estate Network
Powered by RealTown.com

 

*This special offering is brought to you by your REALTOR® through membership in the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR) and through Lowe's partnership in NAR's REALTOR Benefits® Program. Only real estate professionals who are members of NAR may call themselves REALTORS®. All REALTORS® must subscribe to NAR's strict Code of Ethics, which is based on honesty, professionalism, and the protection of the public.

Lowe's Customer Care (CON8) 1605 Curtis Bridge Rd. Wilkesboro, NC 28697.
View our Privacy Policy.

© 2010 by Lowe's®. All rights reserved. Lowe's and the gable design are registered trades marks of LF, LLC.

This is not the opinion of Brad Bergamini, Realty Executives Northern Arizona or any of its affiliates.  This post is for informational purpose only and is not guaranteed and does not render as legal advice.  Buying and selling Real Estate in Arizona or Prescott Arizona is a serious task and should be consulted with personally with Realtor or Real Estate Attorney.  Please visit my website for contact information

http://bradbergamini.com or http://everythingprescott.com

 

 

Monday, January 03, 2011

Economic Roundup: January 3, 2011

 

https://store.velma.com/PFWeb/OutputHTML/D-FC5E65FC/0000001_output/Images/aef143d5-ae34-4dcb-8da2-9763b5c204b0_EmailPersonalPhoto.jpg
https://www.wjbradley.com/email/forVelma/spacer.gif

Mark Ott

Loan Officer

W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.

Office: 928-775-9330

NMLS: 189552

License: BK-0903998

Contact Me

My Website

https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/spacer.gif

https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/spacer.gif
Building a
Secure Future

https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/spacer.gif

https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/Wjb_Logo.gif


In the News

Last week offered a light financial calendar, with the spotlight focused on a decline in the Consumer Confidence index from The Conference Board.
 
The index, which had improved in November, dipped to 52.5 in December from 54.3 in November. (The index was ranked at 100 when benchmarked in 1985.) While a decrease, this should not be read as gloom and doom on consumers' part, according to Lynn Franco, director of the Consumer Research Center at The Conference Board.
 
"Despite this month's modest decline, consumer confidence is no worse off today than it was a year ago," she says. "Consumers' assessment of the current state of the economy and labor market remains tepid, and their outlook remains cautious. Thus, all signs continue to suggest that the economic expansion will continue well into 2011, but that the pace of growth will remain moderate."
 
The additional confidence indexes also showed declines, with the Present Situation Index (how consumers feel about the current economic circumstance) declining to 23.5 from 25.4.
 
Some other notable statistics:

  • The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are "bad" decreased to 41.2 percent from 42.9 percent.
  • Those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 7.5 percent from 8.5 percent.
  • Consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 3.9 percent from 4.3 percent, while those stating jobs are "hard to get" edged up to 46.8 percent from 46.3 percent.
  • Those anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 19.5 percent from 19.1 percent, while those expecting more jobs declined to 14.3 percent from 15.1 percent.
  • The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes decreased to 9.9 percent from 11.1 percent.

While consumers might have increasingly worried about job prospects in December, the Department of Labor reported last week that for the week ending December 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims dipped to 388,000. This marked a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 422,000. The four-week moving average was 414,000, a decrease of 12,500 from the previous week's revised average of 426,500.
 
This week, the financial calendar will pick back up again with lots of news to kick off the New Year. The news kicks off today with home construction spending data for November from the Census Bureau, which is expected to taper off from October's growth, while still showing an anticipated 0.2 percent gain.
 
The Census Bureau will follow with factory orders for November on Tuesday, which market watchers expect will show a 0.5 percent drop from October's data. Car and truck sales data for December from the auto manufacturers will also be released on Tuesday.
 
Friday will see a variety of employment related figures for December from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, including non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, hourly earnings and the average workweek. Unemployment, the most watched figure of the quartet, is expected to remain at 9.8 percent.
 
This week will wrap up with consumer credit data for November from the Federal Reserve.
 
 

 

 

© 2010 W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp., 201 Columbine Street Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206. Phone #303-825-5670. NMLS ID 3233. Trade/service marks are the property of W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. Some products may not be available in all states.

Alabama Consumer Credit License MC 20878; AZ License # BK-0903998; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act RML# 4131002; To check the license status of your CO Mortgage Broker, visit www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm; Florida Mortgage Lender license #ML.100000098; ID Mortgage Broker License No. MBL-2803; IL Residential Mortgage Licensee – License #MB.6760738, 201 Columbine Street, Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206; MI First Mortgage License No. FL0011392; MN Residential Mortgage Originator License No. 20447094; NV Mortgage Banker License No. 2061; NV Mortgage Broker License No. 504; NM Mortgage Loan Company and Loan Broker Act Reg. No. 01856; OK Mortgage Broker- License No. MB001365; OR Mortgage Lender License No. ML-776; TX Mortgage Banker Reg. No. 74182; UT Mortgage Lender Company License No. 5495659-MLCO; Vermont Broker License #0995MB; Vermont Lender License #6141; WA Consumer Loan License No. CL-3233; Wisconsin Mortgage Banker License No. 699991.

 

 

This is not the opinion of Brad Bergamini, Realty Executives Northern Arizona or any of its affiliates.  This post is for informational purpose only and is not guaranteed and does not render as legal advice.  Buying and selling Real Estate in Arizona or Prescott Arizona is a serious task and should be consulted with personally with Realtor or Real Estate Attorney.  Please visit my website for contact information

http://bradbergamini.com or http://everythingprescott.com

 

 

Brad Bergamini, real estate agent on Zillow

Share Prescott Real Estate News

Bookmark and Share

Brad Bergamini's answers on Trulia Voices

PRESCOTT, Arizona area homes for sale and listings from Brad Bergamini