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Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

 

visit my website     email me now Theron Wall Branch Manager 3615 Crossings Dr, Suite A Prescott, AZ 86305 Phone: (928) 778-7167 Mobile: (928) 533-7473 Fax: (928) 445-5308 For the week of November 29, 2010 – Vol. 8, Issue 48 >> Market Update  INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE  Last week was short, but still managed to squeeze in two reports on our favorite topic. Wednesday's New Home Sales for October were down 8.1% from the month before, at an annual rate of 283,000. A slight upward move in these numbers had been forecast. The inventory of new homes edged up to 8.6 months, higher than the 6 month's supply level everyone would like to see. But Tuesday, October Existing Home Sales came in with a way smaller decline – down just 2.2% from September and in line with expectations. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the annual sales rate at 4.43 million homes. Actual sales, year to date, are 4.15 million, down 2.9% from the same period a year ago. The NAR's chief economist feels that sales activity appears to be "off the bottom and attempting to settle into normal, sustainable levels." He expects steady improvement to levels "above 5 million by spring of next year." The median existing home price edged down a little to $170,500 and is down only 0.9% from a year ago. The months' supply of existing homes dipped to 10.5 from September's 10.6 reading, as inventories declined overall. >> Review of Last Week A TURKEY FOR WALL STREET... Unfortunately, Thanksgiving week turned out to be a turkey for stock market investors. Stock prices went down following renewed concerns over European debt and North and South Korea lobbing shells at each other across their border. Even though one trading day registered a 150-point gain thanks to some encouraging economic news, three out of the four days were downers, so the Dow and the S&P 500 ended lower for the week, while the Nasdaq eked out a miniscule gain. With European debt, there are once again fears of contagion, which negatively affected stock markets there and around the world. While Ireland works its bailout with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, worries about Portugal and Spain re-surface. On the home front, a negative Durable Goods Orders reading for October was offset by an upwardly revised 5.0% gain for September. The fall-off in New Home Sales was similarly balanced by Existing Home Sales coming in as expected, covered above. Encouraging indicators also included Q3 GDP (gross domestic product) getting an upward revision from its initial estimate, to a 2.5% annual growth rate. Improvements in consumer spending and exports drove the solid move up. Initial jobless claims held at under 450,000 for the third week in a row, now down to 407,000. Finally, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment surged to 71.6, more than two points above consensus expectations. For the week, the Dow was down 1.0%, to 11092.00; the S&P 500 was down 0.9%, to 1189.40; but the Nasdaq was UP 0.7%, to 2534.56. The bond market benefited from the flight to safety caused by events in Europe and Korea, but there was enough good economic news to put bond prices under pressure. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 8 basis points for the week, closing at $101.09. National average rates for fixed-rate mortgages barely moved last week, according to Freddie Mac's survey of conforming mortgage rates. They are still at historically low levels. >> This Week’s Forecast MORE JOBS, SAME UNEMPLOYMENT RATE... The month ends tomorrow, so Friday brings the November Employment Report and everyone will be looking for signs of hope on the jobs front. Experts predict we'll have another monthly gain in payrolls, although the 130,000 jobs predicted won't be enough to move the unemployment rate down. A jobs recovery is key to the housing recovery, but we're not quite there. Thursday's Pending Home Sales report for October will give us an idea about existing home sales a couple of months out. No one expects a surge just yet. Manufacturing, however, is forecast to continue its steady expansion, with both Chicago PMI and the ISM Index well north of 50. The ISM Services read also shows growth in the nonmanufacturing sector. Observers are expecting a slight hike in November Consumer Confidence, always a good thing. >> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of November 29 – December 3  Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact Tu Nov 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Nov 59.8 60.6 HIGH Tu Nov 30 10:00 Consumer Confidence Nov 52.0 50.2 Moderate W Dec 1 08:30 Productivity – Rev. Q3 2.4% 1.9% Moderate W Dec 1 10:00 ISM Index Nov 56.4 56.9 HIGH W Dec 1 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/27 NA 1.03M Moderate Th Dec 2 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 11/27 423K 407K Moderate Th Dec 2 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 11/20 4.200M 4.182M Moderate Th Dec 2 10:00 Pending Home Sales Oct 0.0% –1.8% Moderate F Dec 3 08:30 Average Workweek Nov 34.3 34.3 HIGH F Dec 3 08:30 Hourly Earnings Nov 0.1% 0.2% HIGH F Dec 3 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 130K 151K HIGH F Dec 3 08:30 Unemployment Rate Nov 9.6% 9.6% HIGH F Dec 3 10:00 ISM Services Index Nov 54.5 54.3 Moderate   >> Federal Reserve Watch    Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  Economists expect the Fed Funds Rate to remain low while the Fed continues its $600 billion bond buying program through the first half of next year. A surge in inflation or in the economic recovery could of course change that. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Dec 14 0%–0.25% Jan 26 0%–0.25% Mar 15 0%–0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Dec 14      <1% Jan 26      <1% Mar 15      <1%   This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412

 

PPL Winter News (Revised)-- now with embedded URLs

 

My apologies if you received an earlier version of this email.  The "first edition" was sent in error. TK   Hello Prescott Library Patrons,   At Prescott Public Library we welcome winter with the Stars of the Season Family Planetarium Program.  This entertaining and informative astronomy program centers on finding the constellations in the real night sky, using a sophisticated miniature planetarium projector and a 15-foot portable planetarium dome. Shows are at 5:30 and 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, December 7. There are only 25 seats per show. Reserve your space by calling the Ask a Librarian Desk at 777-1526. All seating is on the floor. Bring a pillow or blanket, or purchase a PPL stadium cushion ($5 at the Check Out Desk).   Holiday Closures During the holiday season, the Downtown Library and Prescott Gateway Branch will be closed November 25-26, December 24-26, and December 31-January 2.     eBooks and eReaders When I asked you to help me think about the future of our library, many of you wrote to say you hoped the library would eventually add eBooks to our collections.  The timing was right, and PPL patrons can now check out and download an eBook anytime, anywhere. Also available, a selection of eReaders library patrons can check out for in-library use. Downloadable eBooks are available to PPL patrons via OverDrive, the same service patrons already use to download audio books.  If you’re thinking about buying an eReader, please check the list of OverDrive-compatible eReaders  before making a purchase.  If you don't own an eReader, you can still download and read eBooks on your home computer or laptop.  Ask a Librarian staff will be glad to help you with this new format.  Just ask!      24/7 Check In The alley book drop (south side of the Downtown Library) will be closed from 5 p.m. November 28 through 5 p.m. December 1, while technicians install a 9-bin automatic book sorter.  Once the sorter is up and running, you can return your book to the alley book drop and the sorter will check it in then deposit it in the appropriate bin. The sorter will even print out routing slips for items headed for another library or to the reserve shelves for another patron. Library items returned to the alley book drop will be immediately checked in, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, saving time for volunteers and staff, and resulting in quicker turn-around of books and other high-demand library materials.    Cell Phones in the Library Occasionally I hear from library patrons dismayed by cell phone use in the library. I usually explain that rather than banning cell phones in the library, we try to reduce rude behavior.  Loud conversations don’t belong in the library, whether their source is a cell phone user or old friends who simply forgot they were in the library.  If you observe library behavior not in keeping with library policies, please ask library staff to intervene. If you are looking for a quiet place to read or study, we can help.   If you bring a cell phone into the library, we ask that you turn the ringer to vibrate or off, keep your conversations short and your voice lowered, leave the library if you are having an extended conversation, and refrain from using your cell phone at the service desks.   Upcoming Events Friday, December 3. 2 p.m. It’s a Mystery Book Group will discuss Nevada Barr’s Borderline.  Please call the Ask a Librarian Desk at 777-1526 to learn about this and other library-sponsored book clubs. Friday, December 3. 3:30 p.m. Paws to Read with Toby. Children from 5-10 are invited to practice their reading with my border collie Toby. Toby is a Therapy Dog, and the only dog in Prescott with his own library card. Sunday, December 5. 2 p.m.  Being Mexican American in Prescott, the final offering of the Mexico: Prescott’s Distant Neighbor series. Newly arrived and long-time Prescott residents share the joys and frustrations of recreating familiar traditions in a new place, side-by-side with the challenges of overcoming language and cultural barriers. Wednesday, December 8. 6:30 p.m. “Just for Grownups” International Film Series. This month's movie is Bomber, a bittersweet comedy about love, family and dropping bombs on Germany. In English. Tuesday, December 14. Noon. Music for Lunch features holiday favorites with violinist Marie Rhines.    Wednesday, December 22. 10 a.m. or 1 p.m. Cookie House Decorating. Families and kids of all ages are invited to decorate graham cracker houses at the annual Cookie House Decorating event hosted by the library’s Teen Advisory Group (TAG).  All supplies will be provided. To reserve space, call the Youth Desk at 777-1537.   The online events calendar offers an up-to-the-minute listing of everything going on at the Downtown Library.     As always, thank you for reading and for your continued patronage of Prescott Public Library.   Toni   Toni Kaus Library Director Prescott Public Library  Prescott, Arizona 928.777.1519

 

 

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Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

visit my website     email me now Theron Wall Branch Manager 3615 Crossings Dr, Suite A Prescott, AZ 86305 Phone: (928) 778-7167 Mobile: (928) 533-7473 Fax: (928) 445-5308 For the week of November 22, 2010 – Vol. 8, Issue 47 >> Market Update  INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE  The Commerce Department reported last Wednesday that Housing Starts dropped 11.7% in October. This put them at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 519,000, their lowest level in 18 months. But most of the fall off came from a 43.5% decline in multifamily construction, a volatile part of the market. Single-family building, accounting for more than 80% of all starts, was off just 1.1%, to 436,000 units. And September single-family starts were revised UP to a 2.1% gain. Meanwhile, Building Permits, which reflect builders' views of the future, were UP 0.5% to 550,000, another hopeful sign. National average mortgage rates edged up in both Freddie Mac and Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly reports. The MBA felt rates rose because of "stronger economic data and lingering uncertainty regarding the structure and impact of the Fed's QE2 program." This Fed plan to buy $600 billion in bonds in a second round of quantitative easing was supposed to push rates down, stimulating the economy by making borrowing more affordable. But some investors fear QE2 will spark inflation, which pushes mortgage bond prices down and mortgage rates up. People looking to buy or refinance should probably not drag their feet waiting for lower rates that may never happen. >> Review of Last Week FLAT... The week on Wall Street saw a big drop in stock prices Tuesday, followed by a big gain on Thursday, but when all was said and done, the week ended virtually flat for all three market indexes. This, however, was a big improvement over the prior week's big declines for all the indexes. Negative influences on the proceedings included the drop in Housing Starts covered above, along with the unexpected rise in mortgage rates after the start of the Fed's bond buying program. But once you got past those items, you had to go overseas to find more downers, which were basically continuations of last week's concerns. Investors don't like Chinese inflation threatening a rise in interest rates over there, or the increasing possibility of a bailout for the Irish banks.  But back over here, we did have some goodies going on. Retail sales were UP 1.2% in October, following a September gain that was upwardly revised to 0.7%. Could other positive economic surprises be on the way? Inflation came in tame, with the Consumer Price Index up just 0.2% for October and Core CPI up only 0.6% year-over-year, the smallest inflation increase in the index's history, dating back to 1957! Initial jobless claims held at under 450,000 for the second week in a row, still too high but showing that the labor market is better than it's been. The General Motors IPO gave back over $13 billion of the money taxpayers put in to prevent a GM bankruptcy. For the week, the Dow was up just 0.1%, to 11203.55; the S&P 500 was flat, up only a fraction of a point, to 1199.73; and the Nasdaq was also flat, down a fraction of a point, to 2518.12. The bond market had an up and down week of it, with prices under pressure on some issues at the end. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 89 basis points for the week, closing at $101.17. This downward action in mortgage bond prices sent national average rates for fixed-rate mortgages up a tad for the week, as mentioned above. >> This Week’s Forecast TWO PACKED DAYS... Thanksgiving  shortens the week, so a slew of economic reports get packed into Tuesday and Wednesday. We start with Second Estimate Q3 GDP, expected to edge up from the preliminary reading. Existing Home Sales for October should show a slight drop in the annual rate. Also Tuesday, the Minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Fed on November 3, could give more insight into the economic recovery. Wednesday kicks off with Core PCE Prices, expected to inch up a tad, but still within the Fed's comfort zone for inflation. No need for them to curtail their QE2 bond-buying! Durable Goods Orders are forecast down a little for October, while Initial Unemployment Claims for the week should remain at their currently lower levels. Happily, New Home Sales for October are projected up a tad and let's hope the experts have that right.... Happy Thanksgiving! >> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of November 22 – November 26  Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact Tu Nov 23 08:30 GDP – Second Estimate Q3 2.4% 2.0% Moderate Tu Nov 23 08:30 GDP Deflator – Second Estimate Q3 2.3% 2.3% Moderate Tu Nov 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Oct 4.42M 4.53M Moderate Tu Nov 23 14:00 Minutes of the FOMC Meeting 11/3 NA NA HIGH W Nov 24 08:30 Personal Income Oct 0.4% –0.1% Moderate W Nov 24 08:30 Personal Spending Oct 0.5% 0.2% HIGH W Nov 24 08:30 Core PCE Prices Oct 0.1% 0.0% HIGH W Nov 24 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Oct –0.3% 3.3% Moderate W Nov 24 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 11/20 442K 440K Moderate W Nov 24 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 11/13 4.280M 4.295M Moderate W Nov 24 09:55 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final Nov 69.4 69.3 Moderate W Nov 24 10:00 New Home Sales Oct 312K 307K Moderate W Nov 24 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/20 NA –7.29M Moderate   >> Federal Reserve Watch    Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  With last week's CPI readings showing inflation very mild indeed, economists expect the Fed Funds Rate to stay low as the Fed continues its $600 billion bond buying program through the first half of next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Dec 14 0%–0.25% Jan 26 0%–0.25% Mar 15 0%–0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Dec 14      <1% Jan 26      <1% Mar 15      <1%   This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412

 

Weekly Hot Sheet :: 11/19/2010

			WEEKLY EDITION 11/19/2010

 

Do you know a buyer for any of these homes? This hot sheet contains new virtual tours in or near zip code "86301".    This Week's Hot New Virtual Tours    RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL       $285,000 4 beds, 3 baths 1578 Eagle Mountain Drive Prescott, AZ 86301     $279,000 3 beds, 1.75 baths 448 S. Marina Prescott, AZ 86301     $181,900 3 beds, 2 baths 1462 E. Rosser St Prescott, AZ 86301   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL       $129,900 3 beds, 2 baths 4765 GLORIA DR Prescott, AZ 86301     $240,000 3 beds, 2 baths 1735 Juliana Street Prescott, AZ 86301     $350,000 3 beds, 2 baths 1909 Timber Point West Prescott, AZ 86303   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL   ACREAGE       $239,000 2 beds, 2 baths 1385 Valley Ranch Cir Prescott, AZ 86303     $269,900 3 beds, 2 baths 1755 Rustic Timbers Lane Prescott, AZ 86303     $213,000 4 beds, 2 baths 153 Lynx Creek Prescott, AZ 86303   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL       $625,000 3 beds, 2 baths 637 N Downer Trail Prescott, AZ 86305       $185,000 2 beds, 2 baths 1191 Gardenia Lane Prescott, AZ 86305     $139,900 3 beds, 2 baths 3500 N Greg Dr Prescott Valley, AZ 86314   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL       $499,000 3 beds, 3 baths 1470 N. Overlook Drive Prescott Valley, AZ 86314     $235,900 3 beds, 2 baths 4744 Sheridan Lane Prescott Valley, AZ 86314       $50,000 2 beds, 2 baths 6090 E Copper Hill Prescott Valley, AZ 86314   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL       $98,000 3 beds, 2 baths 8767 Manely Drive Prescott Valley, AZ 86314 Randy Hamman   Realty Executives Northern Arizona POSTED: 11.14.10       $110,000 5540 N Puma Prescott Valley, AZ 86314 Randy Hamman   Realty Executives Northern Arizona POSTED: 11.13.10       $169,900 3 beds, 2 baths 4482 N Reston Pl Prescott Valley, AZ 86314 Randy Hamman   Realty Executives Northern Arizona POSTED: 11.13.10     RESIDENTIAL   LOTS AND LAND   RESIDENTIAL       $95,400 3 beds, 1.75 baths 8433 E Tranquil Blvd Prescott Valley, AZ 86314       $49,000 190 S Hideaway Dr Dewey, AZ 86327       $289,000 4 beds, 2.75 baths 680 FIRESKY LANE Chino Valley, AZ 86323   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL   RESIDENTIAL       $24,900 2 beds, 2 baths 215 E Bramble Dr Paulden, AZ 86334       $39,900 2 beds, 1 bath 201 E Bramble Dr Paulden, AZ 86334     $52,000 2 beds, 2 baths 20562 S. Hereford Dr. Mayer, AZ 86333

 

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