News for Prescott AZ - AmericanTowns.com

Monday, October 25, 2010

Economic Roundup: October 25, 2010

 

 

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Mark Ott

Loan Officer

W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.

Office: 928-775-9330

NMLS: 189552

License: BK-0903998

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In the News

Housing construction performance unexpectedly rose last month, beating both the market's and analysts' expectations. The big surprise was initial home construction for September.
 
Construction starts on private homes in September ticked up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, which was 0.3 percent better than August's revised estimate of 608,000. Starts on single-family homes in September reached a rate of 452,000, which was 4.4 percent over August's revised figure of 433,000.
 
"The 0.3 percent monthly increase in U.S. housing starts in September, to 610,000 from 608,000, is better than it looks as starts were revised up in each of the previous two months," Paul Dales, an economist with Capital Economics, told the International Business Times.
 
That said, building permits for private housing in September dropped 5.6 percent below August's performance to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 539,000. However, permits for single-family homes issued in September were at a rate of 405,000, which was 0.5 percent higher than August's revised figure of 403,000.
 
Builder confidence in the market for new, single-family homes rose three points to 16 for October, according the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), a survey of U.S. home builders. This was the first improvement registered by the HMI in five months, and returns the index to a level last seen in June of this year.
 
"The new-homes market is finally moving past the lull that occurred when the home buyer tax credits expired and economic growth stalled this summer," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe in a public statement.
 
The HMI tracks three indexes. Besides the October figures on the present market, NAHB/Wells Fargo's index gauging sales expectations for the next six months rose five points to 23, and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose two points to 11.
 
This week is full of pertinent real estate news, starting with existing home sales data for September from the National Association of REALTORS®, which hits the headlines today. Then the Census Bureau releases its new home sales data for September on Wednesday. If last week's limited regional sales reports were any indication, expect performance to be down.
 
Also coming out this week is consumer confidence data for September on Tuesday from the Conference Board, which offers consumers' appraisal of their current situations and their expectations for the economy. A good companion piece of data, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment data for September, will be released on Friday.
 
Other data to be released this week are durable goods orders from the Census Bureau on Wednesday and data on the third quarter's gross domestic product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.
 
 

 

 

Equal Housing Lender. © 2010 W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp., 201 Columbine Street Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206. Phone #303-825-5670. NMLS ID 3233. Trade/service marks are the property of W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. Some products may not be available in all states.

Alabama Consumer Credit License MC 20878; AZ License # BK-0903998; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act RML# 4131002; To check the license status of your CO Mortgage Broker, visit www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm; Florida Mortgage Lender license #ML.100000098; Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee, License No. 20233; ID Mortgage Broker License No. MBL-2803; IL Residential Mortgage Licensee – License #MB.6760738, 201 Columbine Street, Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206; MI First Mortgage License No. FL0011392; MN Residential Mortgage Originator License No. 20447094; NV Mortgage Banker License No. 2061; NV Mortgage Broker License No. 504; NM Mortgage Loan Company and Loan Broker Act Reg. No. 01856; OK Mortgage Broker- License No. MB001365; OR Mortgage Lender License No. ML-776; TX Mortgage Banker Reg. No. 74182; UT Mortgage Lender Company License No. 5495659-MLCO; Vermont Broker License #0995MB; Vermont Lender License #6141; WA Consumer Loan License No. CL-3233; Wisconsin Mortgage Banker License No. 699991.

 

 

New Building.. hey good news

 

 

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

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Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Branch Manager
3615 Crossings Dr, Suite A
Prescott, AZ 86305
Phone: (928) 778-7167
Mobile: (928) 533-7473
Fax: (928) 445-5308

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of October 25, 2010 – Vol. 8, Issue 43

>> Market Update 

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE  Last week saw September Housing Starts UP 0.3% to an annual rate of 610,000 units, well ahead of the expected 580,000 unit pace. Even better, starts are UP 4.1% over a year ago. Interestingly, the September gain was totally driven by a healthy 4.4% rise in single family starts, while multi-family starts dropped 9.7%. But multi-family starts are volatile month to month, and are actually up 100.0% compared to a year ago, while single family starts are off 10.8% during the same time frame.

Builders remain cautious, as new Building Permits for September dropped 5.6%, to a 539,000 annual rate. This number of course reflects plans for builder activity a few months out. Nonetheless, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported builder confidence rose in October for the first time in five months. This brings it to a level not seen since June. The NAHB's chief economist feels the new home market is now past the quiet period that followed the expiration of the home buyer tax credits and the summer slowdown in the economy.

>> Review of Last Week

UP WITH VOLATILITY... It was not a quiet week on Wall Street, with a big move down in stock prices, which then came back up. But the markets did close up four out of the five days, so the week ended with all three major indexes ahead once again. Investors focused on a pile of pretty good corporate earnings results, but there were some less than stellar economic reports to get through too.

Industrial Production was off 0.2% in September, below estimates, though production is up at a 4.9% annual rate for the last six months. Capacity Utilization also dipped down to 74.7% for September, although it's still 6.5 percentage points above the low it hit back in June 2009. Countering these figures, the Philadelphia Fed Index for manufacturing in that region was back into positive territory. Leading Economic Indicators were up 0.3% for the month and weekly jobless claims fell a bit, though they're still well above 400,000.

The good news came in corporate earnings, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies reporting including 12 of the Dow components. The financials did well, with 21 out of 27 reporting better than expected earnings per share. In the tech sector, Apple and IBM also did nicely in the earnings department. Coca-Cola, Caterpillar, and airlines also showed gains. Even though the recovery has slowed, the vast majority of public companies continue to make good profit numbers.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.6%, to 11132.56; the S&P 500 was also UP 0.6%, to 1183.08; and the Nasdaq was UP 0.4%, to 2479.39.


Trading ranges in the bond market didn't go too wide, as investors stayed interested enough to keep prices up. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended UP 12 basis points for the week, closing at $103.12. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average mortgage rates for most mortgages remaining at historically low levels. 

>> This Week’s Forecast

NOTHING SCARY... As we head into Halloween this week, it looks like nothing too frightening will be reported on the economic front. Monday's Existing Home Sales are projected up for September, just like September New Home Sales are expected to report come Wednesday. Friday, we get the Advanced Q3 GDP numbers, which economists are forecasting to be modestly positive.

Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday are both projected to be up a tiny bit. Friday's Employment Cost Index should continue with modest growth, while the Chicago PMI is predicted to show a small decline in manufacturing in that region of the country. 

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 25 – October 29

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

M
Oct 25

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Sep

4.25M

4.13M

Moderate

Tu
Oct 26

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Oct

49.0

48.5

Moderate

W
Oct 27

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Sep

1.7%

–1.3%

Moderate

W
Oct 27

10:00

New Home Sales

Sep

295K

288K

Moderate

W
Oct 27

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/23

NA

0.667M

Moderate

Th
Oct 28

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

10/23

455K

452K

Moderate

Th
Oct 28

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

10/16

4.418M

4.441M

Moderate

F
Oct 29

08:30

GDP–Advanced

Q3

2.0%

1.7%

Moderate

F
Oct 29

08:30

GDP Chain Deflator–Advanced

Q3

2.0%

1.9%

Moderate

F
Oct 29

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q3

0.5%

0.5%

HIGH

F
Oct 29

09:45

Chicago PMI

Oct

57.50

60.40

HIGH

F
Oct 29

09:55

Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment–Final

Oct

68.0

67.9

Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  As economists debate how big the second round of quantitative easing (QE-2) will be, they're all in agreement that the Fed Funds Rate will stay at its rock bottom level for quite a bit more time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Nov 3

0%–0.25%

Dec 14

0%–0.25%

Jan 26

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Nov 3

     <1%

Dec 14

     <1%

Jan 26

     <1%

 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412



Equal Housing Lender  

 

Monday, October 18, 2010

Economic Roundup: October 18, 2010

 

 

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In the News

Producer prices continued their upward trend in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. The Bureau's producer price index (PPI) for finished goods increased 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, mirroring August's 0.4 percent increase.
 
Similarly the PPI for intermediate materials, supplies and components increased 0.5 percent thanks to a broad-based increase in prices for various items. For instance, prices for foods and feeds climbed 2.1 percent and prices for energy advanced 0.7 percent.
 
However, the PPI for crude materials requiring further processing dropped 0.5 percent, countering a three-month rise. The Bureau chalked up September's decrease to the index for crude energy materials, which fell by a sizable 8.8 percent.
 
The PPI increase for finished goods beat out economists' expectations of a slight 0.1 percent rise, which should certainly nix any concerns of a deflation. But any concerns over inflation due to the increase would be unjustified, according to Mesirow Financial's chief economist Adolfo Laurenti.
 
"Food prices are high, but the index is relatively stable in its core component," Laurenti told Northwestern University's Medill Reports. "It's not enough of a change to convince the Federal Reserve there is any uptick in inflation."
 
Meanwhile, the trade balance remained at a deficit for August, with total exports at $153.9 billion and total imports of $200.2 billion for the month, according the Census Bureau's latest figures released last week. This put the goods and services deficit at $46.3 billion, up from July's $42.6 billion.
 
The increase in the deficit was thanks to our largest trading partner, China, which had a record trade gap with the United States for the month. China accounted for more than half of August's $46.3 billion gap. This can be chalked up to the weaker yuan, which makes Chinese products cheaper in the U.S. and other overseas markets.
 
On the bright side, while the trade gap widened, exports ceased their slide in August, totaling $153.9 billion, up 0.3 percent from July.
 
This week's financial headlines kick off today with the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) figures for October, which provide a gauge of recent home sales, as well as indications of future home construction.
 
This is followed Tuesday by the Census Bureau's data on housing starts and building permits, which provide information on how much new construction was started and how much more construction was approved — another good measure of the housing market.
 
The Conference Board rounds out the week with its latest report of leading indicators, a compendium of previously announced data on new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits and stock prices to provide a broader picture of where the economy is headed.
 
 

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Mark Ott

Loan Officer

W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.

Office: 928-775-9330

NMLS: 189552

License: BK-0903998

Contact Me

My Website

https://www.wjbradley.com/email/portal-email/images/spacer.gif

 

Equal Housing Lender. 2010 W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp., 201 Columbine Street Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206. Phone #303-825-5670. Trade/service marks are the property of W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. Some products may not be available in all states.

AZ License # BK-0903998; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act RML# 4131002; To check the license status of your CO Mortgage Broker, visit www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm; Florida Mortgage Lender license #ML.100000098; Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee, License No. 20233; ID Mortgage Broker License No. MBL-2803; IL Residential Mortgage Licensee – License #MB.6760738, 201 Columbine Street, Suite 300, Denver, CO 80206; MI First Mortgage License No. FL0011392; MN Residential Mortgage Originator License No. 20447094; NV Mortgage Banker License No. 2061; NV Mortgage Broker License No. 504; NM Mortgage Loan Company and Loan Broker Act Reg. No. 01856; OK Mortgage Broker- License No. MB001365; OR Mortgage Lender License No. ML-776; TX Mortgage Banker Reg. No. 74182; UT Mortgage Lender Company License No. 5495659-MLCO; Vermont Broker License #0995MB; Vermont Lender License #6141; WA Consumer Loan License No. CL-3233; Wisconsin Mortgage Banker License No. 699991.

 

 

This is not the opinion of Brad Bergamini, Realty Executives Northern Arizona or any of its affiliates.  This post is for informational purpose only and is not guaranteed and does not render as legal advice.  Buying and selling Real Estate in Arizona or Prescott Arizona is a serious task and should be consulted with personally with Realtor or Real Estate Attorney.  Please visit my website for contact information

http://bradbergamini.com or http://everythingprescott.com

 

 

Inside Lending Newsletter From Theron Wall

Inside Lending from Theron Wall

visit my website     email me now

Theron Wall

Theron Wall
Branch Manager
3615 Crossings Dr, Suite A
Prescott, AZ 86305
Phone: (928) 778-7167
Mobile: (928) 533-7473
Fax: (928) 445-5308

Wallick & Volk Mortgage

For the week of October 18, 2010 – Vol. 8, Issue 42

>> Market Update 

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE  Mortgage rates, already at historically low levels, have been sliding even further the last few weeks. Nonetheless, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed purchase applications down a bit from the week before.

But happily, applications for conventional purchase loans are actually at their highest level since the start of May, following the home buyer tax credit expiration on April 30. Of course, with today's super low rates, demand for refinancings are also up -- a healthy 24% over the week before, with refinance application volumes now close to their highest level all year.

>> Review of Last Week

ANOTHER WEEK UP... Yup, the stock market maintained its steady cruise upward, begun in September and continuing now for the first two weeks in October. Investors on Wall Street seem to be staying in positive, if cautious mode. The economy sends mixed signals, but stocks push relentlessly upward. All three major market indexes were up for the week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the pack, delivering a very strong 2.8% gain, helped by good Q3 numbers from Intel and Google!  

On the negative side, the trade deficit expanded by $3.8 billion in August to $46.3 billion, which was larger than anticipated. New claims for unemployment insurance also increased by 13,000. Continuing claims, however, dropped to their lowest level in almost two years, but it's unfortunately still a big number, at 4.399 million. Wholesale inflation inched ahead a bit, with the Producer Price Index up 0.4% in September and up 4.0% compared to a year ago. This, of course, isn't great, although worries about deflation should be less in the headlines.

For good news, we saw consumer inflation stay well under control, with consumer prices edging up just 0.1% in September. This was less than expected and up only 1.1% versus a year ago, well within the Fed's guidelines. Core consumer prices, which leave out food and energy, were unchanged for the month. These steady prices may be why retail sales were up 0.6% for the month, better than expected and giving evidence the consumer is trying to help the recovery. 

For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.5%, to 11062.78; the S&P 500 was also UP 0.9%, to 1176.19; and the Nasdaq was UP 2.8%, to 2468.77.


It was a volatile week in the bond market, but prices held up well enough in certain areas. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down just 6 basis points for the week, closing at $103.00. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average mortgage rates for most mortgages trickling lower for another week, staying at historically low levels. 

>> This Week’s Forecast

BUILDING PRODUCTS, BUILDING HOMES...This week's economic reports begin and end with manufacturing readings, which are expected to still show a slow recovery. Monday's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are expected to stay flat for September. Thursday we get the Philadelphia Fed Index of the state of manufacturing in that region, forecast to nudge up into positive territory.

In addition to building products, we'll also get a look at building homes. Tuesday's September Housing Starts should be down a bit from August and still hovering at a modest rate below 600,000. September Building Permits, showing how builders are feeling further out, are expected to be slightly under the Housing Starts number, indicating still cautious attitudes in that industry. 

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 18 – October 22

 Date

Time (ET)

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Impact

M
Oct 18

09:15

Industrial Production

Sep

0.2%

0.2%

Moderate

M
Oct 18

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Sep

74.8%

74.7%

Moderate

Tu
Oct 19

08:30

Housing Starts

Sep

575K

598K

Moderate

Tu
Oct 19

08:30

Building Permits

Sep

565K

569K

Moderate

W
Oct 20

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/16

NA

–0.416M

Moderate

Th
Oct 21

08:30

Initial Unemployment Claims

10/16

455K

462K

Moderate

Th
Oct 21

08:30

Continuing Unemployment Claims

10/9

4.400M

4.399M

Moderate

Th
Oct 21

10:00

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index

Sep

0.3%

0.3%

Moderate

Th
Oct 21

10:00

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Oct

1.4

–0.7

HIGH

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  With Fed chairman Ben Bernanke last Friday all but promising a second round of quantitative easing (QE-2), economists do not expect the Fed Funds Rate to move off its rock bottom level for quite some time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Nov 3

0%–0.25%

Dec 14

0%–0.25%

Jan 26

0%–0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:

Consensus

Nov 3

     <1%

Dec 14

     <1%

Jan 26

     <1%

 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Theron Wall. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Wallick & Volk Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of Wallick & Volk Mortgage. BK 0018295 NMLS #256412


Equal Housing Lender  

 

This is not the opinion of Brad Bergamini, Realty Executives Northern Arizona or any of its affiliates.  This post is for informational purpose only and is not guaranteed and does not render as legal advice.  Buying and selling Real Estate in Arizona or Prescott Arizona is a serious task and should be consulted with personally with Realtor or Real Estate Attorney.  Please visit my website for contact information

http://bradbergamini.com or http://everythingprescott.com

 

 

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